August 3, 2018

Good Morning,

The US Midwest weather forecast had no major changes as close to average rains and no prolonged heat looks to continue. A front looks to bring rainfall to most areas of the Midwest thru the first half of next week. The 11-16 day forecast has mostly average to above average temps with average precip for the Midwest.
Informa will release its production/yield estimates this afternoon. Expectations are for their numbers to mirror FC Stones estimates which were released on Wednesday. Right now it appears the markets are trading a 176-178 bpa yield in corn and a 49-51 bpa in soybeans. Look for traders to start gearing up for next Fridays report early next week. The funds are currently short 133k corn and 65k soybean contracts.
Demand for corn has continued to be strong and if prices remain low, the export demand could bring carryout below 2 billion bushels even with a yield of 178. (view chart below).

18/19 USDA June est Projection #1 Projection #2 Projection #2
Planted Acres 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.1
Harvested Acres 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8
Yield 174 178 183 185
Carry in 2027 2163 2163 2163
Production 14230 14569 14969 15133
Available 16307 16782 17182 17347
Feed Use 5425 5375 5375 5375
Industrial Use 7105 7105 7105 7105
Ethanol Use 5625 5625 5625 5625
Exports 2225 2400 2400 2400
Total Use 14755 14880 14880 14880
Carryout 1552 1902 2302 2467

In my opinion only a yield of 174 or less will move this market higher. The export estimates above in projection 1,2 and 3 are assuming that trade negotiations between the US and our partners gets worked out. China is preparing to retaliate in the escalating trade war on tariffs on about $60 billion worth of US goods. The import tax could range in rates of 5 to 25 percent. The implementation date of the taxation will be subject to the actions of the US. This statement came in response to yesterday’s news that President Trump would like to increase tariffs up to 25 percent.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

August 2, 2018

August 2, 2018

Good Morning,

Markets currently trading three higher on corn, and five lower on soybeans. Yesterday’s loss of seven cents was attributed to a couple different factors, including: much favorable forecast change, and rumors of larger tariffs on imports from China.

FC Stone released yield estimates of 178.1 bushel for corn and 51.5 bushel for Soybeans. Reports are coming in across the Midwest of elevators and farms a like with large quantities of old crop corn to move before fall. This is concerning for farmers with an expected large harvest soon approaching and higher demand for truck drivers taking away from grain hauling. USDA had ethanol yield at 2.88 gl/bu in May, below last year, and another reason demand has gone up.

Below are firm offer levels to consider:

Old Crop – Call for options
Fall Delivery – $3.65-3.75
Spring 2019 Delivery – $3.80-3.90
Summer 2019 Delivery – $3.90-4.00

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

August 1, 2018

August 1, 2018

Good Morning,

Markets currently trading two lower on corn and fourteen lower on soybeans. Lower market is led by a much more unstable forecast, versus yesterday’s outlook, as well as profit taking at the beginning of the month.

With the first day of August upon us, we need to realize what seems to be a great crop overall. Most areas to the south are well developed, and our area is pretty far along on development. August updated yield report is just around the corner, and likely not going to lower corn yield from 174. With these pieces of news, below are some targets to consider if we do see some hot/dry weather premium:

Old Crop – Call for options
Fall Delivery – $3.65-3.75
Spring 2019 Delivery – $3.80-3.90
Summer 2019 Delivery – $3.90-4.00

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

July 31, 2018

Good Morning,

Significantly stronger markets this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 20 to start the day. Reports from Bloomberg that the US and China are going to resume trade talks has traders optimistic that demand will resurface sooner rather than later for beans. Some added heat in the forecast could add to worries in parts of IA and MO, but may be welcome for the rest of the Midwest as heat could add to the test weight.
Last nights crop conditions report showed corn unchanged at 72% G/E, but I view this number as misleading. Corn conditions dropped in every state except MN, SD, CO, TX, PA and NC. Of those, only MN and SD produce any volume of corn. The worst state continues to be MO which came in at 33% G/E. WI dropped 2% to 81% G/E. Soybeans were similar with the US ratings unchanged at 70% G/E. The only states to increase were SD, IA, MS, NC. MO is also the lowest here at 40% G/E.
Corn has traded higher 11 of the last 12 days with today’s rally. The funds bought 6000 sb and 7000 corn contract yesterday. They are estimated to be short 133k corn and 63k soybeans. With today being month end I would expect to see more buying as traders cover their shorts. Do not be surprised if we see some retracement tomorrow with the beginning of the month.

Producers should be putting in firm offers for new crop (fall/spring and next summer delivery). I would target the following levels for sales:

Fall Delivery – $3.65-3.75
Spring 2019 Delivery – $3.80-3.90
Summer 2019 Delivery – $3.90-4.00

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

July 30, 2018

Good Morning,

The markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans up 6. Weather concerns around the world have pushed prices, with crops getting smaller in some areas.
As of last week the Brazilian second crop corn harvest reached 49%, in increase of 13% over last week but still 55% behind the 5 year average. Due to dry conditions and no rain to speak of in the forecast, many farmers are choosing to let the crops naturally dry in the field saving on cost. The Brazilian second crop is currently projected at 57.1 mmt, down over 10 mmt from last year.
There is a lot of talk about how good this corn crop will be and so far it does appear to be racing towards the finish line without many issues. Many expect the yields will be comparable to last year if not larger. There is some concern that the absence of heat may have kernel depth and ear weights lower than last year that will keep us from reaching the full potential.
The US Midwest forecast has precipitation running less than average the next 10 days with temperatures expected to be warmer to above average. The 11-16 day forecast has ridging for the central 2/3rds of the country bringing above average temperatures and below average precipitation to most of the Plains and Midwest.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

July 27, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 10 to start the last day of trading for the week. All commodities have had a good week as corn is up 8, soybeans up 20 and wheat up 20 so far on the week. We have seen more farmer selling this past week as producers take advantage of the recent move higher to move old crop bushels ahead of harvest.
The US and EU trade relations appear to moving in a positive direction which should support grains. Both sides have agreed to move forward on removing tariffs between the two. This agreement isn’t likely to increase corn exports, but does give the markets some positive political news.
8 of the last 10 trading sessions have seen the funs buyers of corn which has reduced their net short position from 153k to 129k. If we could get some more traction on the tariff front in the next couple weeks we could see this this trend continue.
Fundamentally the corn market is trading 20-25 cents below where I think it should be given stocks, demand and the potential size of this years crop. Whether or not we see the market correct is unknown. Producers locally need to be prepared if we don’t see this rally and make sure they have plans in place for this years crop.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

July 26, 2018

July 26, 2018

Good Morning,

Prices on the CBOT are trading higher after President Trump and EU Commission President agreed to hold off on any new tariffs. However, it was the comment from Mr. Trump that the EU had agreed to “buy a lot of soybeans” that has the bean shorts running for the exits. No one really knows what “a lot of soybeans” means in terms of actual numbers, but the trade definitely viewed the news as bullish as the beans gapped higher and rallied to sharp gains. Corn has followed suit gapping higher, as well, with wheat also trading higher.
The comments from the President were a welcome change and have helped to breathe new life back into the markets. This news makes perfect economic sense for the EU with new crop soybeans out of the Gulf being offered at a $2 per bu. discount to Brazil. Rest assured the EU and everyone else will buy almost every soybean they need from the US so as long as the trade war between the US and China continues.
The EU and GFS models are back in good agreement on the 10-day outlook in calling for a broad ridge/trough pattern to continue through the first week of August. The pattern is expected to bring seasonally cool temps and below normal rainfall to the N. Midwest.

Producers with old crop corn and soybeans to move should take advantage of this news and rally by making sales!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

July 25, 2018

Good Morning,

The corn market is trying to rebound from yesterday’s profit taking with nearby futures up 5 and deferred up 3-4.
USDA Ag Sec Perdue announced the agency is authorized up to $12 billion in programs to assist US farmers disrupted by tariffs. The program is expected to begin around Labor Day; USDA stresses this is a short-term program until trade deal can be made. USDA will use 3 programs to assist farmers; 1) Market Facilitation Program, authorized under the CCC and administered by FSA, will provide payments incrementally to producers of soybeans, sorghum, corn, wheat, cotton, dairy, and hogs; this is direct payment to producer, after they’ve sign-up with local FSA county office. 2) Food Purchase and Distribution Program through Agricultural Marketing Service to purchase unexpected surplus of affected commodities such as fruits, nuts, rice, legumes, beef, pork and milk for distribution to food banks and nutritional programs. 3) Trade Promotion Program administered by Foreign Agriculture Service to assist in developing new export markets for farm products. Press conference revealed that soybeans would be largest recipient of program $. Unfortunately the financial break-down, the duration, & how each program is administered is not available yet. This is not a sustainable long term solution, but will buy producers time as the US and China try to work out their differences.
The EU and GFS models are in fair agreement over the 10-day forecast as they call for a broad ridge/trough pattern to continue across N. America into the beginning of August. The weather pattern is expected to bring cooler temperatures and below normal rainfall. Areas of acute dryness continue to pop up throughout the Corn Belt that will be a drag on corn and bean yields. The latest Vegetative Health Index maps showed marked improvement as they now point to yield potential closer to 176 to 178 bushels per acre as a nationwide average. With each passing day now it looks as though the 2018 corn crop will be a good, but not a great and with what is going on with wheat the corn will surely follow.
Producers with old crop corn and soybeans to move should take advantage of this short rally to make sales. The announcement has done nothing to change the supply and demand picture for the time being and if/when it does, it will only affect new crop.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

July 24, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn ratings came in unchanged yesterday afternoon for the US at 72% G/E. Silking was 81% vs the 5 year average of 62% and dough stage was also ahead of normal at 18% compared to 8% for the 5 year average. Wisconsin was rated at 83% G/E which is up 1% from last week. Silking in WI was 53% vs the 5 year average of 35% while dough was unrated. We are too late in the season for crop ratings to deteriorate enough to move the market higher. This weeks report has traders anticipating not only a larger harvest, but an earlier one as well. The rapid maturity of this crop is most likely going to keep any late season market rally at a minimum.
Other morning highlights:
• The new EPA administrator, Andrew Wheeler, will make an announcement today concerning sorghum in the RFS
• The USDA announced a cancellation of 165 mt sale of soyobeans to China
• Weather was favorable across all Crop Watch 2018 fields last week with some rain showers and milder temperatures, and some of the corn and soybeans are already responding to the better growing conditions.

After closing higher for the previous 6 sessions, corn looks to reverse direction today with the markets down 6 on the open.

Producers looking to move old crop and clean out their bins before the 2018 crop starts to come off should give us a call to discuss special options that we have for you.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

July 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Favorable rains locally over the weekend have the crops looking very good in our area as we work thru the crucial pollination and development stage. The extended 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast looks drier with temps above normal for the Corn Belt. The driest areas could be the Dakotas, MN, WI and northern IL.
Friday’s cattle on feed report showed 11.3 million head in large feedlots, the largest number since records started in 1996. This is 4% more than a year ago. June placements came in at 101.3% of last year while marketing’s came in 100.9% of last year.

The markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans up 3. Will the funds start buying in an attempt to extend last week’s rally in the markets? Demand remains strong, but political pressure will keep the markets in check for some time. This afternoon’s crop conditions report should show a slight decline in crop conditions, but traders will likely wait for the USDA’s August production forecast before confirming a bottom is in place.

Producers looking to move old crop and clean out their bins before the 2018 crop starts to come off should give us a call to discuss special options that we have for you.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com