October 1, 2020

Good Morning,

The USDA threw the traders a curveball yesterday with a bullish September 1st stocks report and wave of unexpected revisions. This helped add some much needed life into the markets and should add support moving forward. While the old crop stocks dropped, early indications on the 2020 crop are much better than expected. I continue to receive reports of record yields in MO, IL, IA, MN and WI. The common theme in all of these reports is test weight! I have been charting test weights for the last 6 years and each of the last five years we have continued to drop. In 2015 the average test weight was 57.4 while the 2019 crop averaged 53.4. Early indications are that this years crop is going to bounce back to the 56+ range which will add up quickly and add to producers production and bottom lines. Each producer will have to monitor his or her own situation but a 5% increase in bushels due to test weight will add up fast in your bins and may result in the need to make more sales this fall.
Yesterday’s rally showed the funds adding 40,000 corn and 30,000 soybean contracts to their already long position. The funds are currently long 111,000 corn and 216,000 soybean contracts.
Harvest should progress nicely over the next couple of weeks with dry/cool weather prevailing across the Midwest through the weekend. However, the ridge/trough pattern will progress east allowing the ridge return to the central US bringing with it warmer/dry weather next week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 30, 2020

Good Morning,

Markets are quiet to start the day as traders prepare for this todays September 1st stocks report that will be released at 11am.

Expectations are for NASS to up 2019 soy crop by 23m bu. to 3.575B bu. Average trade estimate for 9/1/20 corn stocks at 2.250B bu is on par with the September 2019 corn stocks although range (high to low) in estimates of over 450M bu. is quite large.
Today’s USDA Grain Stocks report could potentially reflect a revision to last year’s corn crop in similar fashion to how the previous year’s soybean crop has always been reviewed in this report. In the past, USDA did not include a re-examination of the previous year’s corn crop in this report, instead doing so if/when necessary as part of the Annual Crop Production report in January, as well as in the 5-yr Census revisions.
In the past we would not expect USDA to revise last year’s corn crop in this morning’s report as it has not been part of the methodology for the September Grain Stocks report. However, NASS officials have confirmed they did, in fact, go through the same process for corn as always has been the case for soybeans for the release of the report and it will include a revision to last year’s corn crop “if necessary.” This will be part of the September Grain Stocks report permanently for corn moving forward.

USDA September 1 Grain Stocks(billion bu)
9/30/20 Ave. Est. 2019
Corn 1.995 2.250 2.221
Soybeans .523 .576 .909
Wheat 2.159 2.242 2.346

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 28, 2020

Good Morning,

Markets are on the defensive this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans down 10 as traders wait to see if we can get any Chinese buying before they go on a week long holiday beginning Thursday. We will also have the USDA stocks report out Wednesday and the WASDE on October 9th.

Harvest should progress very quickly now and I anticipate hearing reports of steady harvest paces when the USDA releases its Crop Progress report later today. I expect to see 15%+ for corn and 15% to 20% for beans. Rain delays today and likely tomorrow had little effect on prices this morning, though increasing concerns about rising global coronavirus cases weigh on the markets.

Look for the markets to continue to trend lower with harvest pressure and rising cases of coronavirus.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 25, 2020

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are both up 2 to start the day as we look to end the first week in over a month with lower prices. The markets have had a nice rally starting in the middle of August and recently topping out last Friday. Harvest pressure and outside market concern had traders taking risk off this week in all markets.

The next two weeks will see harvest progress move along very quickly. By next Friday there will be a lot of soybeans cut, and some corn. Harvest progress on Monday should be 15 plus percent for corn and 15-20 percent for beans.

The US weather will remain mostly clear for the next two weeks There is a small storm system setting up for the 27-29th of September, but amounts will be pretty light. Temps will move to freezing levels in the Northern grain belt the middle of next week, which actually will aid harvest.

Exports were massive again this week, and the market not only failed to react positive, but sold off on the news. Most feel China has bought most of what they want for now. There has been so much corn and beans booked, I’m not sure we can even meet their needs and ship this amount on a timely basis. China is also going to be on holiday starting the first week of October, which could put some weakness into the beans market with a lack of purchases while many trades will be out.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 23, 2020

Good Morning,

Markets were softer overnight and appear to be on the defensive as a stronger dollar is taking its toll on the commodities. Concern over rising COVID cases across both the US and Europe are also weighing on prices.

Harvest continues to roll on as weather is dry where the corn is ready and is drying down fast where it isn’t. Locally we have seen producers taking off soybeans and corn in the last few days with moistures coming in very dry for this time of year. With 60’s to 70’s in the forecast for the next two weeks we expect to see harvest start to ramp up pretty quickly.

The 6-10 day forecast for the Midwest continues with dry weather for the week across the region but we could see a front come thru over the weekend and another front early next week. Rainfall amounts will be light and favor the northeast. Temps will be above average over the next 5 days.

Congratulations to producers who took advantage of yesterday’s December offer. Not only are you locking in a good price for new crop corn, but you are being proactive in coring your bins to help maintain quality in the grain you store.

Producers and traders have become very bullish the markets in the last few weeks with the recent rallies that have given life to the market but they need to be cautious and keep history in mind. Remember how quickly things changed back in March when COVID was the headline and taking over all sectors. At anytime this could flare up again and current markets could plummet to the levels we saw in April, May and June! Don’t let the opportunities to sell corn at $3.30-3.70 pass you by!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 21, 2020

Good Morning,

The markets are down sharply this morning with corn off 7, soybeans off 16 and wheat off 12. The approaching harvest and weak outside markets have taken some of the wind out of the bulls sails. Rising COVID infection numbers in Europe and reports that the UK is preparing for another lockdown have soured the mood this AM.

The markets remain dependent on continued buying from China to maintain these price levels. Again this morning we have activity on the daily system with China stepping up to purchase 132 TMT of soybeans to go along with a sale to Pakistan for 132 TMT of soybeans and another sale for 171 TMT to Unknown.

Other non-Chinese demand is limited as end-users and importers appear unwilling to chase the market higher. Gulf premiums are running $1.32 over on corn and $1.36 over on soybeans. With US grain economically unattractive, all this means is that the Chinese demand will be a key driver for this week’s price action.

Harvest in the Delta is advancing with harvest in the Midwest kicking off later this week for many. Interior basis levels have begun to weaken. Chinese demand is the key going forward.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 18, 2020

Good Morning,

Prices are higher to finish the week with corn up 2 and soybeans up 9 to finish the wek.

It is a same story on a different day as soybeans score new highs for the rally which is dragging the grains along for the ride. Fund managers appear willing to continue to extend their length until someone or something pushes back. Farmers have been modest sellers on the rally, but most are waiting until they run the combines before becoming too aggressive.
China’s vegoil markets have been rising rapidly as reports of increasing consumer demand coupled with China actively booking palmoil imports. The big rally in prices there has spilled over into our soyoil and soybeans. Futures are now back to their best level since January and in a position to challenge the a monthly downtrend on the charts that goes all the way back to 2008.
President Trump announced a new $13B package of CFAP overnight that is expected to be outlined at some point today by the USDA. This second round of CFAP is designed to help cover farm losses related to COVID-19 for the period of April through December. The program will raise pressure on Congress to replenish the CCC with additional funding considering they will need approximately $7B for crop revenue payouts. The CCC is looking for reimbursement for around $30B in payments made to US farmers in 2019. If all aid is utilized it would raise the total government aid provided to farmers in 2019 to a record $50B.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 15, 2020

Good Morning,

Markets are lower this morning with corn down 3 and soybeans down 6 as traders look to take some profits from the recent rally in all commodities with weather looking very favorable for harvest in the coming weeks.

Crop condition ratings slipped a little more this week with corn losing 1% and beans losing 2% to 60% and 63%, respectively. The bean drop was bigger than what the trade was expecting. 41% of the corn is now mature with 5% of the crop in the bin. 37% of the beans are dropping leaves with the USDA set to begin reporting harvest data next week.

China continues to secure US soybeans on a seemingly daily basis with Sinograin the reported buyer. The talk is that the Chinese bought another 6 to 10 cargoes of US beans again on Monday. We have confirmation of some of that business on the daily system this morning with the announcement of a sale for 132 TMT of soybeans to China along with another 132 TMT sale of beans to Unknown and 120 TMT of corn to Unknown.

The EPA denied 54 retroactive waivers of the RFS. There are still 14 applications that remain pending. What happens with those remaining ones is uncertain with gasoline consumption clearly down here in 2020. Also in question is what about all the promised government funding for refiners.

The corn and soybean markets may encounter more hedge pressure next week as harvest gains steam.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 11, 2020

Good Morning,

Markets are firmer to start the day with corn up 2 and soybeans up 9 ahead of todays report. Estimates for todays report can be found below and will be updated after the 11am release.

2019/20 carryout (billion bu.)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 2.253 2.234 2.228
Soybeans .575 .600 .615

2020/21 carryout (billion bu.)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 2.503 2.451 2.756
Soybeans .460 .465 .610

2020 Yield(bpa)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 178.5 178.3 181.8
Soybeans 51.9 51.8 53.3

2020 US Production (billion bu.)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 14.900 14.898 15.278
Soybeans 4.313 4.295 4.425

Make sure you have firm offers in for corn and soybeans ahead of the report, the highest prices are often seen 3-5 minutes after the report is released.

Reminder that we will be open for grain receiving on Saturday from 7-5.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

September 9, 2020

Good Morning,

Markets are lower overnight and this morning as Fridays report becomes the focus for traders. Last nights crop ratings showed corn dropping slightly to 61% G/E while soybeans remained unchanged at 65% G/E. Corn % dent jumped to 79% which is up 16% from last week and 8% higher than the average. This should come as no surprise as this years crop has been ahead on maturity all season.
Fridays report will be the focus for traders as they look to see where production and carryout end up. Current estimates show the 19/20 corn carryout up slightly from the August report(6 million bu) while the 20/21 carryout is down 305 million bu. Yield estimates are guessed at 178.3 bpa which is off from the USDA’s August estimate of 181.8. 2020 US production is estimated at 14.898 billion bu.
While these numbers do appear to be bullish the markets, we are still looking at stocks to use ratio north of 15%. Historically we need this percentage below 10% to see corn near $4/bu!
Take advantage of the recent rally and don’t get caught speculating on how high prices may go. Manage your risk and you will sleep better at night!

If you have old crop corn to move call to find out what options we have for you. In addition to solid prices we have a couple other options that will allow you to finish cleaning out your bins.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com