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Daily Insights

March 28, 2024

Good morning,

It’s finally report day! Corn is unchanged and soybeans are down 7 to start the day. The USDA will release the March 1st stocks and Prospective planting intentions at 11:00 am today. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

 

USDA March 1 Stocks (billion bushels)

March 2024 Average Est. March 2023
Corn 8.347 8.427 7.396
Soybeans 1.845 1.828 1.687
Wheat 1.087 1.044 .941

 

USDA Prospective Plantings (million acres)

March 2024 Average Est. USDA Ag Forum
Corn 90.04 91.776 91.00
Soybeans 86.51 86.530 87.50
All Wheat 47.49 47.330 47.00

 

 

I would advise producers to be making sales and get offers in place for both old and new crop ahead of the report.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

March 19, 2024

Good morning,

 

Another mixed trade as we start out about the same as we did yesterday, higher wheat and corn and lower beans. Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 4 to start the day.

 

Private analyst StoneX estimates South American soybean harvest progressed to 65% complete, up 8% vs. last week and in line with average pace. The 1st corn crop is now 52.4% harvested, up about 6% vs. last week and in line with average pace. The 2nd corn crop is now 94% planted, essentially done and ahead of normal pace.

 

European Union officials said they are preparing to impose tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus, $103.26 per metric tonne; the Kremlin is analyzing details and time frames before issuing a response.

 

The corn market has popped about 30 cents on a liquidation of about 90k contracts from the managed money crowd. The funds are short 255,000+ contracts which is still a strong short position but is much more manageable than a 340k+ short position they had 3 weeks ago. Using this math, it would take about $1.00 rally to clear out the remaining short position. I would argue the farmer’s length in corn would likely have a bigger impact and not allow that math to ‘work.’

 

Producers should be actively making old and new crop sales on the recent rally ahead of next Thursdays report.

 

Have a safe day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

March 18, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is down 1 and soybeans are down 6 to start the week.

 

Friday afternoon’s CFTC report showed the funds short 254,319 corn and 144,618 soybean contracts.

 

This morning Ukraine’s Ag Ministry estimated 2024 corn planted area at 3.863 million hectares (9.55 mln acres) in their first official forecast, down 4.5% from 4.043 million hectares (10.0 mln ac) last season. Meanwhile, the Ag Ministry reported grain exports at 2.8 MMT so far in March, down from 3.5 MMT from March 1-20 last year; cumulative grain exports since July 1 stand at 32.4 MMT, down from 35.8 MMT last season.

 

After a firm opening last evening, the corn and bean complex have weakened. With the key March 28th report just 8 trading sessions away, producers need to put themselves in a more manageable position before the report. This is especially true for old crop, but “some” new crop sales should also be implemented. In my opinion any acreage number north of 90 million acres is going to result in lower trade. Current old crop prices in the $4.15-$4.30 range are great and should be captured. New crop prices in the $4.40-4.50 range are available and small sales should be made there as well.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

March 13, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are down 8 to start the day.

Brazilian government supply agency Conab cut their 2023/24 soybean production estimate from 149.4 to 146.9 MMT, compared to 154.6 MMT last season. Total corn output fell from 113.7 to 112.8 MMT, down from 131.9 MMT last year; second-crop production fell from 88.1 to 87.3 MMT, compared to 102.4 MMT in 2022/23. Wheat output was reduced from 10.2 to 9.6 MMT this month. Total grain production for ‘23/24 fell from 299.8 to 295.6 MMT, down sharply from 319.8 MMT last season.

Argentina saw good rains center-east again over the past 24 hours, shifting into the north/northeast through the weekend and remaining there for the 6–10-day period, with the center-south dry. Brazil was drier yesterday with only isolated action in the far north, with better action north and south over the next five days, and the best chances holding south for the 6-10- day period. Issues will include slowing soybean harvest in the south into that 6-10 day, with dryness affecting safrinha corn in the center-east through next week.

Conab’s surprise production cut early yesterday morning seems to have worn off and the market is struggling this morning. If you are behind on new crop sales, now is probably a good time to get some sales in place. Current new crop prices are in the $4.40-4.50 range.

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

 

March 13, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are down 8 to start the day.

Brazilian government supply agency Conab cut their 2023/24 soybean production estimate from 149.4 to 146.9 MMT, compared to 154.6 MMT last season. Total corn output fell from 113.7 to 112.8 MMT, down from 131.9 MMT last year; second-crop production fell from 88.1 to 87.3 MMT, compared to 102.4 MMT in 2022/23. Wheat output was reduced from 10.2 to 9.6 MMT this month. Total grain production for ‘23/24 fell from 299.8 to 295.6 MMT, down sharply from 319.8 MMT last season.

Argentina saw good rains center-east again over the past 24 hours, shifting into the north/northeast through the weekend and remaining there for the 6–10-day period, with the center-south dry. Brazil was drier yesterday with only isolated action in the far north, with better action north and south over the next five days, and the best chances holding south for the 6-10- day period. Issues will include slowing soybean harvest in the south into that 6-10 day, with dryness affecting safrinha corn in the center-east through next week.

Conab’s surprise production cut early yesterday morning seems to have worn off and the market is struggling this morning.   If you are behind on new crop sales, now is probably a good time to get some sales in place. Current new crop prices are in the $4.40-4.50 range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com