April 2, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 2 after Monday’s slight rebound from last week’s selloff. This was expected and is a good sign that hopefully we have put in a short term floor and can grind higher as we head into spring. While I do not anticipate a significant move higher, I could see 10-15 cents as realistic.
The US Dollar is stronger as drama in the UK over Brexit has investors continuing to use the currency as a safe haven. Stronger global demand and the idea that OPEC will reduce production have crude oil pushing $62/barrel.
One situation that bears watching is the Presidents threat to close our southern border with Mexico in an effort to slow the flow of asylum seeking immigrants. Should the border be shutdown it would put nearly $3 Billion in Ag products sold to Mexico in jeopardy as bottlenecks develop.
Producers looking to move old crop prior to or during planting season should target $3.35-3.45 in the next couple months unless we see some major weather issues across the Midwest. New crop sales of $3.65-3.75 should be targeted for fall delivery corn.

Have a Safe Day!!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 1, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly higher to start with corn up 2 and soybeans up 5. This comes as little consolation after Friday’s large selloff following the USDA report. (report below)
Higher estimates of March 1 stocks and 2019 acres sent the markets lower on Friday. The March 1st stocks showed on farm stocks above last year with farmers owning 60% of the corn, 47% of the soybeans and 23% of the wheat. Corn saw the biggest jump in acreage with an increase of 3.6 million acres. Planting intentions for “principal crops” came in at 315.4 million acres which is down 4.2 million from 2018.
Based on satellite data it is estimated that 1 million acres of farmland was flooded from the Dakotas to Missouri and beyond due to the weather in March. While this is a large area, there is plenty of time for much of it to dry up and be planted this spring. This is why traders have not added any premium to the markets based on this flooding.

Quarterly Stocks (billion bushels)
March 2019 Average Estimate March 2018
Corn 8.605 8.335 8.892
Soybeans 2.716 2.683 2.109
Wheat 1.591 1.555 1.495

US planting Intentions (million acres)
USDA March 2019 Average Estimate USDA 2018 Final
Corn 92.792 91.332 89.129
Soybeans 84.617 86.169 89.196
Wheat 47.339 46.915 47.800

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 29, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are quiet this morning as traders prepare for the USDA’s quarterly stocks and planting intentions report that will be released at 11am today. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

Quarterly Stocks (billion bushels)
March 2019 Average Estimate March 2018
Corn 8.335 8.892
Soybeans 2.683 2.109
Wheat 1.555 1.495

US planting Intentions (million acres)
USDA March 2019 Average Estimate USDA 2018 Final
Corn 91.332 89.129
Soybeans 86.169 89.196
Wheat 46.915 47.800

Brazil’s weather forecast has overall drying during the next two weeks in central and southern Brazil and Paraguay as rains will be concentrated in northern Brazil and further relief from dryness will occur in northeastern Brazil. Argentina’s weather forecast has good harvest conditions during the next ten days. Argentina’s corn harvest is running behind last year, but fight on pace with the three year average.

The funds continue to defend their near record short position as they are short 270,000 corn, 65,000 soybean and 76,000 wheat contracts heading into today’s reports.

While I do not expect any dramatic moves in the markets following todays report, these are typically the days that offer the best opportunity to capture a short move higher in the markets. Make sure you have firm offers in with your local grain buyer prior to the 11am report.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 26, 2019

March 26, 2019

Good Morning,

Futures are mixed in a low volume trade with the traders unwilling to add to their positions ahead of the key reports from the USDA on Friday morning. Beans were down 3, corn off 1 and winter wheat up 2 to 4 cents. With the funds already excessively short the market, prices should be supported on the breaks.
Soybeans are beginning to feel some pressure from S. America as farmer selling in Argentina increased this week. This is not a big surprise with beans originating out of Argentine ports running between 5 to 15 cents below the Board. This will limit US sales to other World importers with the FOB premium for US beans over Argentine ones growing wider over the last four weeks.
Producers are advised to get firm offers in with us before this week’s report and before you head to the field. Last week we were able to fill some $3.90 offers for February and March of 2020! These are great prices and more producers should be taking advantage of December thru May 2020 prices in the $3.75 to $3.95 range. Give us a call today to put in your offers.

We will be at the WPS Farm Show in Oshkosh this week on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Visit us in booth A3518.
Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 25, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are steady to start the week with both corn and soybeans hanging around unchanged. Last week resulted in a 5 cent gain in corn futures and a 5 cent loss in soybean futures. The funds remain short 265,000 corn and 61,000 soybean contracts.
Flooding in the western states and the talk of lost acres this spring has caught the traders attention, but we have yet to see any trade reflect this so far.
This week may be the best chance for the markets to rally with month end, quarter end and USDA reports on Friday. Fridays report will show quarterly stocks along with the first look at planting intentions for US acreage. With the funds sitting on record shorts I would not be surprised to see a small rally early in the week.
Producers are advised to get firm offers in with us before this week’s report and before you head to the field. Last week we were able to fill some $3.90 offers for February and March of 2020! These are great prices and more producers should be taking advantage of December thru May 2020 prices in the $3.75 to $3.95 range. Give us a call today to put in your offers.

We will be at the WPS Farm Show in Oshkosh this week on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Visit us in booth A3518.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 22, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn is trading 2-3 higher this morning after talks yesterday that China had stepped up and booked its first purchase of US corn. Corn prices have risen despite fund managers increasing their record net short position. The USDA confirmed yesterday’s rumor with an announcement on the daily system that the Chinese had purchased 300 MT of corn. This is a good sign with the US negotiating team arriving in Beijing this weekend.
I don’t expect the market to move dramatically either direction in the next several months unless we see a significant weather issue. (Excessive wet spring or widespread summer drought) Next Thursday the USDA will release its quarterly stocks report along with the 2019 planting intentions. Estimates are for corn acres to increase by 2-3 million acres. I believe the market has 1-2 million more acres traded so far and could trade lower if we come in at 3 million.

GO BADGERS!!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 21, 2019

Good Morning,

Quiet markets to open the day with corn up 1 and soybeans down 2. Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report had production down 1000 bpd to 1.0 million as stocks jumped 681,000 barrels to 24.41 million barrels. Tjhis morning export sales for the week ending 3/14 came in at 33.7 million bushel for corn and 14.7 million bushel for soybeans. Corn is slightly below the ten week average of 37.4 while soybeans are significantly below the ten week average of 41.7.
President Trump said on Wednesday afternoon that tariffs on Chinese goods may be kept in place even if a trade deal is consummated to make sure China is living up to the deal. (looks like things are really going well)
The funds remain significantly short corn beans and wheat with nothing fundamental to move them out of these positions. We have been hearing for months that there “has to be a rally”, but it is becoming more and more obvious that this may not happen.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 19, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn and soybean markets are steady this morning after the funds added to their short position yesterday. The funds currently sit short 259,000 contracts of corn, 85,000 contracts of soybeans and 75,000 contracts in the wheat market.
Flooding in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri continue and look to continue in the near future with warmers temperatures adding additional snow melt to the already overwhelming water levels in these areas. This flooding will definitely have an impact on the planted acres this spring, but the extent of acres would only be a guess at this point.
Sonny Perdue said that trade talks with China are “dynamic” and that China could triple its 2017 purchases of US farm goods in the next five years. These comments are getting old and until we see the sales and actual shipments I am not going to get too excited.
Next Thursday the USDA will release its quarterly stocks and planting intentions report. This will be the last market mover report until the June stocks and planted acres report.

With spring field work and planting right around the corner, make sure you take time to get firm offers in with your buyers, update the firm offers you have in.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 13, 2019

Good Morning,

Futures are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s Turnaround Tuesday that saw wheat post its biggest 1 day gain in 7 months. Part of the rally was sparked by the strength in the cash basis for hi-pro wheat from mills. The turnaround helped futures hold support after the markets had become oversold. In the outside markets, the US Dollar is steady, crude oil is back above $57/ barrel and gold is trading higher as investor utilize it as a safe haven.
US Trade Ambassador Lighthizer will be speaking to Members of the House Ways and Means Committee. When he met with Senators yesterday he spoke positively on the progress being made between the US and China. We anticipate that we will hear more of the same from him today. Chinese media continue to report progress, but are not receiving the assurances they are seeking about the tariffs being lifted. With positive rhetoric coming out of Washington, the prospect of a trade deal between the World’s two largest economies coming in just weeks should be enough to keep the heavy sellers on the sidelines. Argentine corn is running about 25 cents cheaper than shipments originating out of the Gulf at this time which will keep pressure on exports.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 12, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn continued its slide yesterday with wheat pulling it lower and no trade news and export inspections lighter than expected. Weekly corn inspections came in at 765,618 MT for the week versus expectations of 900,000 MT. Reports out yesterday afternoon showed China corn for swine feed use dropping 30% this year as African swine fever outbreak continues to decimate their stock.
The Buenos Aires Grain exchange reported Argentina corn harvest is 4% complete and left their crop estimate at 45MMT. Brazil’s first corn crop is 85% harvested and the second crop is 75% planted.
Its difficult to predict what will move this market higher in the coming months, but most are relying/hoping that spring planting weather to be the catalyst. Temperatures for the next 10 days look cool/wet while the 10 day extended forecast looks to warm up and dry out. Locally we should see significant snow melt the remainder of this week with temperatures in the upper 40’s to mid-50’s.

Producers looking to make cash sales before heading to the fields this spring should give us a call to see how you can get $3.50 for corn delivered in the last half of March – First half of April with a potential sale for December 2019 at $4.00.

Now is the time to start thinking about firm offers for this summer and next fall. Spring planting is not that far away and you don’t want to miss a marketing opportunity because you are too busy in the fields. Give us a call today to get your offers in.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com