August 7, 2019

Good morning,

Grain markets were relatively steady through the overnight of trade with corn futures unchanged and soybeans a cent higher. In the overnight session we saw a lower volume of trade as we expect many traders are gearing up for the report that is going to be released here on the 12th. Currently, corn is down a cent this morning and soybeans are down 3 cents. There’s not a whole lot of fresh news here in the markets today. Leading up to the report, I expect many traders to keep a close eye on the U.S. – China trade talks looking to see if they intensify any more than they already have. Also, I expect many to keep an eye on the development of weather forecasts. There are some drier areas that are becoming a bit more desperate for rainfall. The weather models seem to be struggling a bit determining the placement and intensity of rainfall to come in the next few weeks. With such a late planting for much of the U.S. corn crop this year many traders become concerned with any discerning weather that can still affect the yield potential. I believe trade will remain choppy leading up to the report, trading within its already established ranges until we get that data at the beginning of next week. There have been numerous private production estimates that have hit the markets in the last couple days and more are expected. There has been a large spectrum of predictions of what will come from the USDA data. It isn’t safe to say what will be released on Monday and there is still a lot of uncertainty running through the minds of some anxious traders. In the next few days to come, I would continue to advise producers to put in firm offers with your buyers to capitalize on a sudden run in the market.

Hope you have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

August 5, 2019

Good morning,

Grain markets are lower through the overnight trading session as cool weather remained over the weekend and the next 5 day forecasts show chances of rain for much of the Corn Belt. Also, traders are becoming concerned to how China will retaliate if the tariff hike is implemented in September. Corn is currently down 4 cents and soybeans are currently down 11 cents. President Trump stated that the 10% tariff hike could be revoked if China steps up U.S. ag purchases. Many will be following closely to see what comes in the U.S. – China trade disputes hoping to hear some better news in the weeks to come. The weekly crop progress report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. Analysts are estimating that corn condition will come in at 57% GTE (58% GTE last week, 71% GTE last year, and 69.5% 5-year average) and the soybean condition to come in at 54% GTE (54% GTE last week, 63.4% 5-year average). Ultimately, not a whole lot of fresh news to come over the weekend besides the fact that the U.S. and China are failing to make up any ground regarding the trade talks. Markets continue to remain volatile as the weather remains benign and no progress is being made with China. I would continue to advise producers to put in firm offers with your buyers to take advantage of any run in the market after the report. With that being said, it isn’t safe to rule out a release of unexpected data. If you are sitting on a large amount of old crop I would consider taking some risk away by looking to sell some amount of corn this week before the report gets here.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

August 2, 2019

Good morning,

The technical selling spree continued in yesterday’s session with many traders liquidating their long positions. Both corn and soybeans were pushed to 10 week lows. However, through the overnight of trade the grain markets have made a corrective bounce. Corn is currently up 6 cents and soybeans are up 5 cents. Today’s session will be important in determining if the markets will be able to hold and stabilize this overnight bounce. If we fail to hold the overnight rebound in prices we’re likely to test the lows again trying to find new buyers as the market is still speculatively long. President Trump intensified the pressure on China to reach a trade deal. He announced yesterday the imposition of an additional 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1. The trade disputes definitely hurt the demand side of U.S. grain and oilseeds, so reaching a trade deal will prove crucial for our markets. It was expected that a trade deal would be reached by the end of the year, but with the negotiations being pushed back more and more it makes you wonder when it will really happen. Heavy rains fell overnight in CO, OK, and KS. Those same rains are expected to linger for a while and will disperse by tomorrow. Corn Belt action is expected to stay scattered until the 6-10 day time frame and above normal precipitation is expected in the 11-15 day time frame. Temperatures will trend cooler in the northern plains and belt, and trend warmer far south. The weather and any technical indicators will continue to be closely watched leading up to the August report. I would continue to advise producers to put in firm offers with your buyers leading up to the report. The outlook for the report still remains bullish, so being able to capitalize on a sudden run should prove beneficial.

Have a great Friday!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

August 1, 2019

Good morning,

Markets were steady/mixed through the overnight of trade as they are now trying to make a rebound from the month end selling spree in yesterday’s session. This morning corn is currently down 3 cents and soybeans are down 6 cents. The drop in prices we saw yesterday were due to technical indicators in large part. Key supports failed early on in the trading session which spurred many traders to liquidate their long positions. Also, the non-threatening weather and the U.S. – China trade talks dwindling away for the time being didn’t help with the matter. Overall, there wasn’t much standing in the way for the speculative selling. The resolution to the ongoing trade issues remains elusive. Although not confirmed, I have heard that the chance for face-to-face trade talks have now been moved back a month and will take place sometime in September. Going forward, the next few sessions will be important. Even further liquidation is very possible as the markets try to stabilize. Traders will be keeping a very close eye on the charts. It can be expected that trades will be made based on technical indicators to finish up this week. Overall, the weather remains benign with normal to cooler temperatures. Currently, we aren’t seeing many chances for rain in our area until later in the week next week. I would continue to advise producers to put in firm offers with your buyers leading up to the August 12th report. Also, if you are still sitting on a large amount of old crop, I would consider selling some amount before the report to take some risk away from the chances of prices falling after the report. We are now a week and a half away from the much anticipated report and having a good marketing plan for before and after the report should prove beneficial!

Have a great Thursday!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

July 30, 2019

Good Morning,

Grain markets are a shade lower this morning due to steady-to-better ratings that came with yesterday’s weekly report and partly because the lack of any big news regarding the U.S. – China trade talks. Corn is currently down 3 cents and soybeans are currently down 5 cents. The USDA weekly crop progress report showed the national corn condition rating improved to 58% GTE (57% expected, 57% GTE last week, 70.5% 5-year average). The national soybean rating remained the same for a 3rd consecutive week coming in at 54% GTE (54% estimated, 54% GTE last week, 67.5% 5-year average). Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin all made improvements in their corn condition ratings. Here for the state of Wisconsin we increased 3 percentage points to end up at 63% GTE estimated. Overall, trade remains choppy with many still eyeing the August report that is set to be released on the 12th. Neither the bulls nor the bears are willing to stick their necks out too far. Unless we see a break through or break down regarding the U.S. – China trade talks or a big shift in weather, I believe we will continue to see the listless price action along with muted volume. Trade is concerned with some dry pockets in southeastern Iowa and central Illinois where there have been talks of corn hurting for rain. Trade will continue to keep an eye on the weather, particularly paying attention to chances for precipitation in the areas that are already dry. The bulk of the corn crop is still in pollination stage so the weather for the next 10-15 days remains critical for this year’s crop. I believe if we see a breakthrough in the weather forecasts and precipitation falls on the dry areas we will see a further breakdown in prices. I would continue to advise producers to put in firm offers with your buyers, especially leading up to the report on the 12th. Also, if producers are sitting on a good amount of old crop, I would advise them to sell some amount and take some risk away if the report releases bearish data. It isn’t safe to rule out the USDA throwing another curveball with the way this year has gone.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

July 29, 2019

Good Morning,

After coming off a pretty bearish week last week, the grain markets are finding a bit of support to start the new week of trade. Corn is currently up 3 cents and soybeans are up 5 cents. I believe the markets are reacting to weather models that show a dry week ahead for much of the U.S. growing region. Weekend rains fell in the central/northern Corn Belt over the weekend, with some heavier amounts on the MO/IA border and eastern SD into northern MN and WI. There are currently rains moving across the southern and eastern Corn Belt this morning. However, weather forecasts are predicting we won’t see the rains return until we get 6-10 days down the road. The U.S. – China trade talks are set to resume this week, although expectations for a trade deal to be made anytime soon still remains low. The USDA will release the weekly crop condition report this afternoon at 3 p.m. Analysts are expecting the corn condition rating to come in at 56% GTE (57% GTE last week, 70.5% 5-year average) and the soybean condition is expected to come in at 53% GTE (54% GTE last week, 67% 5-year average). It will be interesting to see where the weekly condition ratings end up. Traders will definitely pay attention to the release of the new numbers this afternoon trying to get a better indication where yield is going to end up. However, I don’t believe the weekly condition report will have a huge effect on trade, it seems like traders are waiting to base their decision on this year’s crop after they see the August report. Ultimately, I don’t believe there will be any big news to come this week. Traders will definitely keep an eye on the trade talks even though much isn’t expected to happen. Also, I believe traders will continue to keep a close eye on the weather as it seems to be the biggest driver of prices as the moment.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

July 26, 2019

Good Morning,

Grain markets were mixed through the overnight of trade as another session of low trading volume passes. The choppy trade remains here in the short-run as traders continue to eye the weather, any technical indicators and the U.S. China trade talks. Corn is currently down 1 and soybeans are currently up 6 and a half cents. A lack of fresh news, displeasing export numbers for corn and soybeans, and non-threatening weather forecasts kept prices on the defensive here in the last 24 hours. There are chances of rain in our area over the weekend and we will continue to see cooler to normal temperatures throughout the week next week. Going forward, I would continue to advise producers to weigh out their options for marketing any old or new crop. At the very least, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have some firm offers in before the August 12th report as I expect trade to remain volatile until the report gets here.

The USDA unveiled its plan on how it will distribute $16 billion in aid to farmers who are losing money to the enduring trade war with China. The program, which the USDA calls it’s Market Facilitation Program, will pay farmers who grow one of the 28 designated commodity crops between $15 and $150 per acre planted this spring. Payments are to be made on a single county rate multiplied by a farm’s total plantings to those crops in aggregate in 2019. The payment Dairy producers will receive include a $0.20 per hundredweight based on production history. For more information on MFP, you can visit http://www.farmers.gov/mfp. Here’s a snapshot of our surrounding county payments. Colombia – $48, Dane – $48, Dodge – $51, Marquette – $31, Green Lake – $42, Sauk – $37, Adams – $37, Fond du Lac – $45, Jefferson – $54.

Have a great Friday!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

July 25, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets were mixed through the overnight of trade with little volume. Corn is currently trading unchanged and soybeans are down 4. The markets continue to trade range bound with traders eyeing the U.S. forecast and waiting to see what happens with the China trade discussions that are set to resume early next week. It definitely feels like the bulls and the bears are in wait and see mode regarding the August report that will be released on the 12th. Even though that report is just over 2 weeks away, it seems like either side is not willing to stick their necks out too far with some uncertainty remaining still. Unless we see a big change in weather or a big step forward or backward in the trade negotiations with China, I think the trade dynamics we have seen this month will continue. I expect the markets to continue to trade in the established range and any price movements will be due to changes in weather forecasts or technical indicators. Going forward, we will continue to monitor weather forecasts and look for any update with international affairs. My advice to producers is to call and discuss opportunities of marketing your crop, especially before the August report gets here. With the way this year of trade has gone, it isn’t fair to rule out any more curveballs being thrown our way.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

July 23, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets traded a bit higher through the overnight session as traders reacted to the lower than expected crop ratings from yesterday’s report. The national corn rating fell a point to 57% GTE (58% GTE expected, 58% GTE last week, 71.4% 5-year average) and the national soybean rating went unchanged at 54% GTE (54% GTE expected, 54% GTE last week, 67.2% GTE 5-year average). For Wisconsin, the corn rating came in unchanged at 60% GTE (60% GTE last week) and the soybean rating came in a few points lower at 62% GTE (64% GTE last week). This morning, the disappointing report seems to have been shrugged off and traders have moved on from the data because it really didn’t give a better indication on where this year’s corn yield will end up. Corn is currently down 3 and soybeans are down 5. Moving forward, weather continues to look non-threatening for much of the U.S. growing region. This week in our area we can still expect cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Forecasts show better chances for rain in the 6-10 day time frame. In the days to come, traders will stay focused on weather conditions and any technical indicators as they wait on the new USDA information. At the least, I would advise producers to put in firm offers with their buyers on old and new crop as the next few weeks leading up to August’s report are expected to remain volatile.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

July 22, 2019

Good Morning,

After a weekend of storms and cooler temperatures setting in, the grain markets open up weaker to begin this new week of trade. Corn is currently down 4 and soybeans are down 6. This week looks pretty dry for our area, but chances of rains are expected to ramp up in the 6-10 day time frame. The cooler temperatures come at a welcoming time as we are seeing much of the corn crop begin to tassel and start pollination. The cooler temperatures are expected to stay for a while. Extended forecasts are showing the warmer temperatures will return in the 11-15 day time frame.

U.S. – China trade talks are another highlight of today’s news in agriculture. The trade talks are beginning to show more signs of progress. China’s official Xinhua news agency said that numerous Chinese companies are seeking purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The news agency reported that Chinese businesses have recently made inquiries with U.S. exporters to buy crops/agricultural products and applied for lifting of tariffs. Moving forward, the markets will certainly keep an eye on the trade negotiations and will be hoping for more progress to be made.

The weekly crop progress report will be released at 3 p.m. this afternoon. Analysts are estimating a corn condition rating of 59% GTE (58% GTE last week, 71.4% 5-year average) and analysts are estimating a soybean condition rating at 54% GTE (54% GTE last week, 67.2% 5-year average). Moving forward, I don’t think trade dynamics will change much until we see the USDA’s yield and acreage confirmation data on August 12th. I expect markets to remain volatile and trade within the established range that we have seen so far this month. I expect the majority of price movement will be based on changes in weather forecasts and any technical indicators. I would advise producers to keep a close eye on the markets in the days to come and consider their options on marketing their crops, especially as the time gets closer for the release of August’s report!

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com