December 4, 2018

Good Morning,

The corn market was lower overnight and is currently unchanged as traders don’t feel they have seen enough details from the US-China talks over the weekend. China remains silent regarding the trade truce that was apparently agreed to with the US. They have not agreed to buy large amounts of US commodities, nor have they agreed to lower tariffs on soybeans. President Trump did agree to delay any further tariffs for 90 days, but stated that all existing tariffs will remain in place until further notice.
Harvest progress was reported at 94% complete in corn and soybeans for the US in last night’s report. Wisconsin came in at 88% complete in corn and 94% complete in soybeans.
Sunday night’s markets gapped higher in both corn and soybean markets which I think will be filled in the coming week or weeks. Look for the markets to trend sideways to slightly lower with these gaps in mind.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 30, 2018

Good Morning,

Futures at the CBOT are higher with corn up 5 cents, beans up 5 and wheat up a 4 cents as well. News early this morning of a new NAFTA agreement has also helped brighten the mood heading into the pivotal Saturday meeting at the G20 between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.
Things started out slightly lower overnight, but recovered as hopes grew that Trump and Xi will be able to iron out some of their differences over trade and come up with some sort of truce. Any truce will likely need concessions from China to end their tariffs on US soybeans and other goods. An agreement, even if it is rudimentary, might prevent current US tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods from rising from 15% to 25% and provide the time necessary to negotiate the details of much a broader framework.

Obviously there is another outcome from Saturday night’s dinner that is significantly less desirable. It would not take a very big stretch of the imagination to see the two leaders unable to come to an agreement and the trade war escalates with our current tariffs rising to 25% and the possibility of tariffs on another $270B of Chinese goods becoming a reality.

I would advise producers to be making some sales for summer and fall of 2019 at current levels. July $3.70 and Oct/Nov $3.65-3.70 levels are on the table and should be grabbed.

Have a Safe Weekend.

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 28, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans have both opened the day higher and are trading 3 and 12 higher respectively. Today’s trade is similar to yesterdays that opened higher and failed to sustain its strength closing unchanged. Soybeans did manage to 13 higher yesterday after trading 20 higher earlier in the session. Traders continue to monitor headlines, quotes and tweets about the potential negotiations between China and the US ahead of this weekend’s G20 meetings.
Look for the markets to remain neutral as neither the bulls or bears are willing to stick their necks out too far with so much on the line and no strong indication of what will come out of these meetings. We do not need to see a resolution this weekend, but will need to see progress made and both sides willing to work on a solution. The refusal of either side to work towards a deal this weekend would not bode well for the grain markets. The US is not alone in these problems either, the EU and Japan have major stakes in the meetings this weekend. If any new tariffs are put in place it would put a coalition between the US, EU and Japan in jeopardy.
I remain optimistic that something will get done this weekend, but the risk of the 25% tariffs going into place would be devastating to the markets.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 27, 2018

Good Morning,

Grain markets are trying to stabilize after yesterday’s selloff in corn and soybeans. Corn closed 3 lower and soybeans were down 19 yesterday. This morning corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 2.
Yesterday’s weakness was a result of President Trump indicating that he would move ahead with increased tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods from 10% up to 25% and put tariffs on the rest of the Chinese goods that are not subject to tariffs yet. This is the Presidents hard line of negotiating ahead of the G20 summit. Trump also said that a deal could happen but it’s up to the Chinese.
Weather has been terrible to finish the last 6% of harvest with snow across the Midwest over the last few days. Yesterday afternoons progress report showed the US 94% complete on corn and 94% complete on soybeans. Wisconsin was 88% complete on corn and 94% complete on soybeans.
Fridays G20 summit could be the next mover in the markets depending the outcome of US and Chinese negotiations. (higher or lower)
Funds have added to their short positions in corn and beans over the last week which is a negative indicator for the markets in the short term.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn opened down one and Soybeans down two, after the holiday trade break. CZ18 option expiration happens today. Beyond that, any news on US and China trade would be positive for the market.

Argentina is still anticipating a 43 million tonnes harvest, this runs consistent with previous estimates. On the other hand in South America, Brazil is having their best ever start to the crop year, estimating a soybean harvest of 129 million tonnes.

Make sure to have offers and targets in place, now that harvest is starting to wrap up, we need to watch opportunities to get the 2018 crop marketed. Some levels to note: February $3.50, May $3.58, July $3.66.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

November 21, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is trading even and soybeans are down three this morning. Watch markets closely, as low volume this week could cause high volatility.

Weak margins continue in the ethanol industry, with Green Plains closing a plant this week, and several others lower production. China and US negotiations are still relatively stagnant, reported on Tuesday, as Trump called the practices China uses as unfair. In other parts of the world corn crops are looking to be off to a better start in Argentina and the Ukraine raising their expectation of harvest to 34.8 mmt.
Now that harvest is slowing down, make sure to have firm offers and targets in place.

We have several adjustments to our receiving hours in the next week be sure to visit our website or call in to get the latest schedule.

Have a Great Thanksgiving!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

November 20, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is trading even and soybeans are up five this morning. Trade has shown low volume early this week. Yesterday saw 90% of the US corn crop harvested, as reported by USDA report.

A story by Wire reported that of the $12 billion bailout only $838 million has been paid out so far. This program has been available since September, and the limitations are dragging out the ability for farmers to use it. Chinese and their government are looking to also make their farming practices more efficient, and lower their import demand.

We have several adjustments to our receiving hours in the next week be sure to visit our website or call in to get the latest schedule.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

November 19, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is trading even and soybeans down fifteen this morning. Trade is expecting 91% corn harvested and 93% soybeans harvested on this afternoons USDA report. President Trump has stated that China has sent a list of items they are willing to negotiate on, to resolve trade tensions. Trump states they are not quite to a resolution, and there are items that need to be added to the started list of 142. This is also a reason the market failed to hold momentum thru this last week.

We have several adjustments to our receiving hours in the next week be sure to visit our website or call in to get the latest schedule.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

November 16, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are trading lower this morning after attempts to rally the markets yesterday ran out of steam. Traders are trying to figure out what to make of conflicting statements from the White House over the current state of tariff discussions with China. With the meeting between President Trump and Xi scheduled for the end of the month at the G20 meeting, Fund managers will be closely watching to see what the tone is between the two. It sounds like President Trump will require that soybeans be a part of any deal negotiated with China. Our window for export sales to be booked is slowly closing but can be quickly overcome if the recent trade restrictions on Chinese demand are backed off.
Weekly export sales were reported at 35.1 million bushels for corn and 17.3 million bushels for soybeans. Both are right on pace with the ten week average.

We have several adjustments to our receiving hours in the next week be sure to visit our website or call in to get the latest schedule.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 15, 2018

Good Morning,

Reports that China sent the US their own trade adjustments yesterday afternoon to get renegotiations moving forward once again have the markets trading higher this morning. More of these optimistic talks could spark as we get closer to the G-20 Summit at the end of this month. While this is great news and supportive to the market those with bullish thoughts about the markets need to keep a couple things in mind:
1. Nothing has been finalized yet.
2. China has found other suppliers for their soybeans and alternative sources for protein in the last 6 months.
3. We are currently putting away one of the largest corn and bean crops in US history.

Corn is trading 3 higher and soybeans are 8 higher to open the day.

Producers looking for space to put away this year’s crop or looking to core out bins before the first of the year should be targeting sales in the $3.40-3.50 range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com