October 25, 2018

Good Morning,

Weaker markets again this morning with corn and soybeans both opening 3-4 lower. Corn, Beans and Wheat have all fallen out of their key trading ranges and below key support levels this week. With a dry US forecast allowing harvest to progress we are going to need the speculative buyer to return to this market to change course.
• Weekly export sales were very disappointing with corn at 13.8 million bu. compared to a ten week average of 29. Soybeans came in at 7.8 million bu. compared to a ten week average of 19.
• Weekly ethanol production rose 13,000 barrels/day to 1.02 million. Production is below the 1.068 million pace needed to meet USDA estimates. Ethanol stocks fell 233,000 barrels to 23.9 million barrels.
• The Wall Street Journal reports the US is refusing to engage in trade talks with China until a “concrete proposal” is presented that addresses US complaints about forced technology transfers. The G20 meeting at the end of November is already being questioned if something can be done then.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didonmilling.com

October 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Last night’s crop progress for corn was 49% complete which is up from 39% last week. Soybeans reached 53% complete which is up from 38% last week. The five year average for corn is 47% and 69% for soybeans. Both of these should climb substantially with this last weekend’s weather and forecasts for the coming week. Yield reports continue to come in very strong across the Midwest which means the crop appears to have survived the adverse weather better than feared leaving LARGE supplies.
It’s difficult to justify a rally in soybeans outside of the US getting a trade deal with China. Corn is trying to separate itself from the soy market, but is having difficulty generating any momentum given the size of this year’s crop. With early intentions for significantly more acres going to corn next spring it may be a long road ahead for both commodities. Cash prices for next fall are currently in the $3.70-3.75 range and should be viewed as a good sale for 20% of your expected production next year. Being pro-active with small sales is the best option in depressed markets with limited gains on the horizon.

Reminder that all loads delivered to Didion must be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 22, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans up 5 after a productive harvest weekend. Forecasts look good for corn and soybean harvest this week with slight chances of rain next weekend. This week’s weather should allow local producers to make significant progress or complete soybeans. Harvest progress will be released this afternoon and is expected to be ahead of last year and the five year average. Keep in minds that this afternoons report will not include all of the activity from the weekend.
Friday’s Cattle on feed was below expectations at 105.4% vs. 106.4%. Placements were 95.4% vs. 100.1% estimate and marketing’s were 96.4% vs. 97%.
Funds ended the week long just over 2000 contracts of corn after a strong week of buying. We will continue to monitor this position as it is a great indicator of where the market is headed.
Look for the markets to remain range bound with traders continuing to monitor export forecasts and South American weather.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 18, 2018

Good Morning,

Commodities are lower this morning as harvest is now widespread across the corn-belt with clear weather. Corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 13 to begin the day. We will watch to see if the CZ18 market can close above the 100 day moving average of 3.7175 today which it has for the past 3 days.
Weekly export sales were light for both corn and soybeans. Corn was reported at 15 million bushel which is about ½ of the ten week average. Soybean sales came in at 10.8 million bushels which is 8 million below the ten week average.
Both China and the US said a meeting regarding tariffs at the G20 summit in November may not happen. This may push the technical traders back to the bearish side until this meeting is officially happens. Increased exports to Argentina are not happening as logistics in Argentina are unable to handle additional volume.
Didion is still buying spot and contract corn for October or November delivery, but as harvest progresses this may not be the case. If you are going to need to move additional bushels this fall I would suggest making cash sales or basis sales ASAP. I would not be surprised to see basis to widen in the next week or two.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 16, 2018

Good Morning,

Turnaround Tuesday as corn, beans and wheat open 3-10-3 respectively lower this morning. Soybeans were the catalyst for all commodities yesterday as traders continued to cover their short positions. Talk of quality issues, strong NOPA crush and reports of sales to China added fuel to the funds buying. Corn followed along with some technical short covering taking place. The fund are now long corn for the first time since June 12, 2018.

Corn harvest pace is ahead of the 5 year average at 39% complete for the country. Wisconsin harvest is 11% ahead of last year and 3% ahead of the five year average at 19% complete. With a favorable week of weather ahead of us this should increase dramatically by next week’s report. I would expect the markets trade lower with harvest hedge pressure in the coming week unless we see more speculative money enter the commodities.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
ggard@didionmilling.com
920-348-6844

October 15, 2018

Good Morning,

Soybeans are leading the way higher this morning as they try to maintain last week’s upward trend. Currently trading 10 higher this market is looking for life that may not be around long. President trump commented on Saturday that the Chinese President may not be ready to make a deal when the two leaders meet at the G20 meeting in Argentina.
Corn is trading 2 higher to start the week. A weaker dollar is helping support the export markets and offering hope that we will see improves sales in Q4 for corn.
Weather across the corn-belt looks to be dry for this week and beyond while temperatures remain below average.
Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
92-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 12, 2018

Good Morning,

Yesterday’s USDA report was a pleasant surprise for producers with a little boost in the markets. The rally yesterday was a result of lower US yields and technical and fundamental buying that followed. US yields were dropped to 180.7 from 181.3 last month and below the average guess of 181.8. A cut in feed demand of 25 million bushels due to sorghum feeding and an increase in exports of 75 million bushels resulted in a 1.813 billion bu. carryout.
Corn is unchanged and soybeans are trading 5 higher on the open as we head into a favorable harvest weather weekend. Despite yesterday’s news and slight increase in the markets, I believe we are range bound until something drastic happens with the demand side. (exports/politics) 1.813 billion bushels is by no means a tight carryout and will offer resistance to the corn market going forward. I look for CZ18 to remain range bound $3.50-3.80 on the board.
Here are yesterday’s report numbers:

USDA 2018/19 Production (billion bu)
USDA October Ave. Estimate USDA September
Corn Production 14.778 14.872 14.827
Corn Yield 180.7 181.8 181.3
Harvested Acres 81.8 81.72 81.80
Bean Production 4.690 4.733 4.693
Bean Yield 53.1 53.3 52.8
Harvested Acres 88.3 88.72 88.90

USDA Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA September Ave. Estimate USDA August
Wheat .956 .950 .935
Corn 1.813 1.919 1.774
Soybeans .885 .898 .845

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 11, 2018

Good Morning,

Markets are mixed ahead of today’s USDA report. Trade is anticipating record corn and soybean yields that will increase stocks. Corn is down 1 and soybeans are up 2 as support levels are challenged in both commodities. Whether or not corn support levels hold will depend on the reaction to a potential nationwide yield around 182 bpa and a carryout that could increase another 150-200 million bushels.
Initially we may see trade react negatively to this report but longer term could see things stabilize if traders begin to question the impact of heavy rains the past couple weeks. We must remember that today’s numbers are from a survey that was completed on October 1st.

Estimates for today’s report:

USDA 2018/19 Production (billion bu)
USDA October Ave. Estimate USDA September
Corn Production 14.872 14.827
Corn Yield 181.8 181.3
Harvested Acres 81.72 81.80
Bean Production 4.733 4.693
Bean Yield 53.3 52.8
Harvested Acres 88.72 88.90

USDA Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA September Ave. Estimate USDA August
Wheat .950 .935
Corn 1.919 1.774
Soybeans .898 .845

Have as Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 10, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn saw some pre report positioning again yesterday and this morning as it closed down -.02 yesterday and is down 2 today. USDA progress report yesterday afternoon estimated corn harvested progress at 34% complete vs last week at 26%, compared to the year ago week at 21%.

• Wet weather continues to plague the corn belt but forecasts are calling for things to clear early tomorrow for a considerable stretch for most of the Midwest.
• The USDA October S&D report will be released Thursday at 11am. Private analysts are calling for a ½ to 1 bpa increase in both corn and bean yields from the USDA September report.
• India has stepped up to fill some of the void left by the trade war between China and the US. Indian exports to China have increased 53% from April thru August year on year.

Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 8, 2018

Good Morning,

Weaker markets this morning with corn and beans both trading 3 lower to open the week. Last week the funds reduced their short position in corn by 75,000 contracts. The decrease in funds short position last week is outweighing the wet Midwest weather.
I look for the markets to establish a sideways pattern this week with the amount of short covering we have seen and expectation for bearish report on Thursday. We could see another round of short covering if the dryer forecast for the middle of this week gets pushed back any further.
Thursdays report will be the second to last update to corn and soybean forecasts until the final January report. Experts are calling for Thursday’s numbers to show a 1 bpa yield increase in both corn and soybeans.
Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com