June 1, 2018

Good Morning,

A potential ridge is developing in the Central plains that could bring hot and dry conditions to the mid-west. There are conflicting forecasts on where this ridge will set up which has traders on edge. If it sets up over the US corn-belt, we will see the markets test their old highs. If it sets up further to the west we will see normal temperatures and more rain in the corn-belt. Traders will be watching weather forecasts closely today and early next week for the latest updates and we could see dramatic swings in the market with each forecast.
Countries have wasted no time in retaliating against new tarrifs from the US yesterday. The EU released a list that includes jewelry, automotive glass, bourbon and blue jeans. Mexico will target port bellies, fruit, cheese and flat steel. Canada says it will match the new tariffs dollar for dollar on a wide range of goods. NAFTA negotiations are breaking down after the US insisted on a 5 year sunset clause.
With crop conditions at record highs in the G/E category, it is going to take weather scares for this market to move higher. We are still a long way from the finish line but if weather doesn’t give the bulls reason to trade we could see this market struggle to maintain current levels. I am still in the camp that we have another 10-20 cents to the upside, but am banking on at least one weather issue for that move.

Have a Safe Weekend.

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmillling.com

May 31, 2018

Good Morning,

Last May’s incident will stay with each of us forever, and we will never forget. Today, our focus is to honor and remember the team members we lost and those who were injured.

As we come together to reflect on the day that marks the 1 year anniversary, we are very grateful for the continuous outpouring of support and prayers we have received during the journey to recover and rebuild.

As a community and as a team, we have many reasons to be thankful and hopeful for the future. Our commitment to support our team and the Cambria community remains strong.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 30, 2018

Good Morning,

Last night’s planting progress showed corn 92% planted vs 90% for the five year average nationally. Wisconsin came in at 81% complete compared to 81% for the five year average. Corn condition ratings showed corn at 79% good to excellent, the highest rating since 2007. Soybeans were 77% planted compared to 62% for the five year average nationally.
We are seeing big setbacks in all commodities yesterday and this morning with some key reversals in the markets. The funds have reduced their long positions by 24,000 contracts in corn and 94,000 contracts in beans so far this month.
With the combination of weather forecasts, crop ratings and political news I would expect more selloffs heading into the month end.
The last couple days should be a reminder to all producers and traders that these markets are very volatile and the slightest change in weather, weather forecasts, news can move the pendulum very quickly. You need to be proactive selling when the opportunities are presented.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 25, 2018

Good Morning,

I believe yesterday’s selloff in the markets was merely traders exiting some of their long positions with the intent of making it a four day weekend. The Ag markets like to make big moves coming out of these long weekends so don’t be surprised to see the markets make a big move higher or lower when we resume trade Tuesday. Weather is nearly ideal for crop development across much of the Corn Belt and some sort of minor correction is probably in order.
Prices are slightly higher today in what is expected to be a light volume day heading into a three day weekend. Corn is up 1, soybeans 6 and wheat is up 9.

Thank you to all the Veterans who mad the ultimate sacrifice so that the rest of us could enjoy our freedom!

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 24, 2018

Good Morning,

Stronger markets this morning as the funds pour into the commodities. Overnight CZ18 made new contract highs and SX18 is on the cusp of making new highs. Wheat and Soybeans have been the catalyst for the commodities as US weather in the wheat growing regions are forecasted to be hot and dry. Soybeans have been stronger as traders are confident that China will resume buying US soybeans despite President Trumps comments the last few days.
Weekly exports were low for corn at 33.6 mln bu of old crop compared to the ten week average of 39 million. Soybean exports were terrible at -5.1 million bu. due to sales being cancelled. Despite the poor week, both commodities remain above the USDA projections for this time of year.
World and US weather will be the market movers the next couple days as traders take us on a wild ride higher or lower with each weather report that comes out. The best thing producers can do in a weather market is to make small sales on rallies and have firm offers in above the market. We see this type of trade every year and know that the markets will head lower before the weather changes and we realize sales should have been made. Don’t let a bullish mindset keep you from being profitable!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans moved higher yesterday, but closed off of the highs. With weather continuing to look favorable with moisture in the Delta and drier in the corn belt in the coming week. Despite some of the weather challenges we are seeing in WI, this year’s corn planting progress is at 81% complete for the US and 56% for Wisconsin. The five year average is 81% for the US and 66% for WI.
President Trump reiterated yesterday afternoon that the US and China have yet to reach a deal on trade, adding that he is “not pleased” with how the talks are progressing. While the talks with China were “a start”, Trump said he’s not yet satisfied. This news was a setback for the stock market and the commodity markets after it appeared that things were progressing following Sunday’s comments from the US Treasury Secretary. The good news is that there are no meetings planned for a couple of weeks between the two countries which may allow traders to focus on fundamentals thru the end of the month.
I look for the markets to back off slightly heading into the weekend with a three day break coming up. Long term I still believe we have another 15-20 cents to the upside in corn between now and the end of June.
Producers should be taking advantage of these rainy days to talk to their buyers about putting in firm offers on any old crop corn sales they have left to make. You should also be getting sales on the books and putting in firm offers for new crop corn. With levels over $4, producers should have 25% of your 2018 production and 10% of your 2019 crop sold.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 21, 2018

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning after it was announced on Saturday that the US and China have agreed to dramatically increase their purchases of US agricultural and energy products. US Treasury Secretary said yesterday that the Trump administration is going to be putting a potential trade war on hold. Included in the framework of the agreement are commitments that include a 35-45% increase in agricultural demand. There is no breakdown of the demand increase, but it is expected to include soybeans, grains and US meat products. I would expect that these announcements should allow the markets to get back to trading fundamentals.
This does not mean that the markets are going to trade significantly higher, but could hold some key support levels in corn and soybeans.
Planting progress this afternoon is expected to show 80% of the corn crop and 55% of the bean crop planted as of Sunday night.

Producers should be taking advantage of these rainy days to talk to their buyers about putting in firm offers on any old crop corn sales they have left to make. You should also be getting sales on the books and putting in firm offers for new crop corn. With levels over $4, producers should have 25% of your 2018 production and 10% of your 2019 crop sold.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 18, 2018

Good Morning,

Same story, different day, grain markets are waiting to hear news about either China tariff negotiations or NAFTA compromises. Though, markets are up four for both corn and soybeans, after China announced dropping anti-dumping duties for sorghum.

Over the past month corn has pretty well stayed within a dime either direction of where we are currently trading around $4.00 on the nearby board. With planting about to make great strides this week, there will be low likelihood that there’ll be a planting rally. Start watching for weather concerns in areas of the Midwest, which could add some premium.

Make sure to take some time while planting to think on offers and sales for both old and new crop corn. Currently cash levels are sitting around $3.80 for August and $4.00 for January.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

May 17, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans are both even this morning. Grain is focusing on a China trade agreement headline coming out, as negotiations are continuing to happen today. Speaker Ryan has set today as the date the new modernized NAFTA agreement must be to him, in order to complete.

Over the past month corn has pretty well stayed within a dime either direction of where we are currently trading around $4.00 on the nearby board. With planting about to make great strides this week, there will be low likelihood that there’ll be a planting rally. Start watching for weather concerns in areas of the Midwest, which could add some premium.

Make sure to take some time while planting to think on offers and sales for both old and new crop corn. Currently cash levels are sitting around $3.80 for August and $4.00 for January.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

May 14, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is currently trading even this morning, trade is currently watching factors including South American weather, Planting Progress Report, as well as NAFTA/China trade negotiation announcements.

The big question lately is how delayed planting progress is affecting the Midwest, currently planting is estimated to be at 55%-60% complete today. This estimate is a big question for where it really comes in today, as the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are behind on progress with continued rain. No bullish response has been seen yet, as farmers are able to plant quite a few acres in less time.

Planting progress should be able to catch up, nationally, with a good weather forecast for the next ten days. Unless there is a big surprise on today’s planting progress report, do not expect a large rally unless major weather issues arise.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com