June 7, 2018

Good Morning,

Wheat continues its run higher this morning while corn and soybeans trade 1 higher and 2 lower respectively. Weather issues in Russia and the plains of the US are supporting wheat. Meanwhile favorable US weather is pressuring US corn and soybeans.
Concerns over the size of South America’s crop seem to be depressed for now as trade believes that the US can outgrow any world supply problems.
Next Tuesday’s S&D report should show a lower Brazilian crop along with higher export numbers for corn which should offer some support to the markets. Soybean export projections are expected to drop which should continue to pressure the markets.
Weekly export sales came in slightly below the ten week average for corn at 33 million bushels. Soybeans continue to lag the ten week average at 6.1 million bushels for the week ending 5/31/18. The reduction in soybean sales to China has brought the export pace back to the USDA’s projected level. We are currently about 110 million bushels behind last year’s pace.

Do you have firm offers in with your buyers for old and new crop? Don’t wait until you are done with your planting, spraying, side dressing to get this done. “I didn’t have time to call” is not a good excuse. Marketing your grain is the most important part of running a successful operation. Take a minute today to call and talk to your buyer.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 6, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is up slightly this morning with technical indicators turning bullish and weather forecasts having some uncertainty in the 10-14 day range. Weather models agree that the 10 day forecasts show above average rainfall and moderate temperatures. Look for the risk premium that is currently in the market to hold until we get agreement on the 10-14 day outlook.
Yesterday morning China offered to purchase nearly $70 billion of US farm and energy products over a year if the Trump administration abandons threatened tariffs according to trade officials.
President Trump rejected an RFS deal allowing ethanol that is exported to be eligible for biofuel credits and allowing E-15 sales year round.
Summer weather is everything when it comes to final yield for corn. Rainfall and temperatures in June are a good preamble to Julys weather, which is the biggest driver of corn yield Long term studies indicate the weather in July is twice as important as June weather. With ample moisture and ideal temperatures in May and the start of June we have corn conditions close to all-time highs in the US. Below is a chart of the best week 21 Good/Excellent Corn condition ratings in the last 20 years. Note that a 178 yield in the US could offset any concerns arising about corn production around the world. With the potential for corn acres to be higher in the June 29th report this would reduce the concern even more.

Year G/E Rating in WK 21 Percent of Trend
2018 79 ?? 2018 trend + 178 bpa
2015 74 102.6
2010 76 100
2007 78 101.5
1999 75 99.5

There is a lot of growing season left, but we are currently off to one of the best starts in history. If weather remains adequate we could be looking at record crops for the third year in a row. Is your marketing plan prepared for prices we have seen the last couple years if carryout remains high? Historically the best prices received by producers are sales that are made 4-6 months in advance of the delivery timeframe. Give your buyer a call today to get caught up on sales and put offers in for the coming year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 5, 2018

Good Morning,

Monday was a tough day in the commodity markets with every commodity closing double digits lower on the day. Corn was down 10, soybeans down 19 and wheat was down 18 on the day. Favorable US weather along with US and China trade negotiations stalling weighed heavily on the markets. The high pressure ridge that looked like it could move into the corn-belt as of last Friday, looks less likely to push as far East as originally forecasted.
Last night’s planting progress was reported at 97% complete vs. 95% on average. Crop conditions came in at 78% G/E compared to 71% on average. Weather will continue to be the market mover with the current trend lower as we get favorable temperatures and moisture.
Yesterday was a very weak close with CN8 breaking the 200 day moving average for corn and could signal additional selling today. Look for resistance near 3.85 CN8 and support near 3.75 CN8.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 4, 2018

Good Morning,

When we left last Friday there was a potential ridge developing in the central plains that could have brought hot and dry conditions to the mid-west. It looks as of now that this ridge is not going to develop. The U.S. Midwest weather forecast looks mostly quiet the first half of this week before good rains look to fall mainly in the northern sections of the corn-belt. As always, weather is the driver in June and for now it is driving the markets lower.
The Trump administration is expected on Monday to announce changes in biofuels policies, including a plan to count ethanol exports toward federal biofuels usage quotas and allowing year-round sale of fuels with a higher blend of ethanol; the changes, expected to be outlined in a memorandum on Monday, will be subject to the federal rule-making process.
Soybean prices continue their downward trek on increased US/Chinese tensions over tariffs on US/Chinese goods. China threw out a warning against the US imposing tariffs on $150 billion of Chinese goods after weekend negotiations faltered.
This afternoons planting progress and crop conditions reports should be bearish the markets given last week’s weather.
Corn is down 6, soybeans are down 11 and wheat is down 14 to begin the week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 1, 2018

Good Morning,

A potential ridge is developing in the Central plains that could bring hot and dry conditions to the mid-west. There are conflicting forecasts on where this ridge will set up which has traders on edge. If it sets up over the US corn-belt, we will see the markets test their old highs. If it sets up further to the west we will see normal temperatures and more rain in the corn-belt. Traders will be watching weather forecasts closely today and early next week for the latest updates and we could see dramatic swings in the market with each forecast.
Countries have wasted no time in retaliating against new tarrifs from the US yesterday. The EU released a list that includes jewelry, automotive glass, bourbon and blue jeans. Mexico will target port bellies, fruit, cheese and flat steel. Canada says it will match the new tariffs dollar for dollar on a wide range of goods. NAFTA negotiations are breaking down after the US insisted on a 5 year sunset clause.
With crop conditions at record highs in the G/E category, it is going to take weather scares for this market to move higher. We are still a long way from the finish line but if weather doesn’t give the bulls reason to trade we could see this market struggle to maintain current levels. I am still in the camp that we have another 10-20 cents to the upside, but am banking on at least one weather issue for that move.

Have a Safe Weekend.

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmillling.com

May 31, 2018

Good Morning,

Last May’s incident will stay with each of us forever, and we will never forget. Today, our focus is to honor and remember the team members we lost and those who were injured.

As we come together to reflect on the day that marks the 1 year anniversary, we are very grateful for the continuous outpouring of support and prayers we have received during the journey to recover and rebuild.

As a community and as a team, we have many reasons to be thankful and hopeful for the future. Our commitment to support our team and the Cambria community remains strong.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 30, 2018

Good Morning,

Last night’s planting progress showed corn 92% planted vs 90% for the five year average nationally. Wisconsin came in at 81% complete compared to 81% for the five year average. Corn condition ratings showed corn at 79% good to excellent, the highest rating since 2007. Soybeans were 77% planted compared to 62% for the five year average nationally.
We are seeing big setbacks in all commodities yesterday and this morning with some key reversals in the markets. The funds have reduced their long positions by 24,000 contracts in corn and 94,000 contracts in beans so far this month.
With the combination of weather forecasts, crop ratings and political news I would expect more selloffs heading into the month end.
The last couple days should be a reminder to all producers and traders that these markets are very volatile and the slightest change in weather, weather forecasts, news can move the pendulum very quickly. You need to be proactive selling when the opportunities are presented.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 25, 2018

Good Morning,

I believe yesterday’s selloff in the markets was merely traders exiting some of their long positions with the intent of making it a four day weekend. The Ag markets like to make big moves coming out of these long weekends so don’t be surprised to see the markets make a big move higher or lower when we resume trade Tuesday. Weather is nearly ideal for crop development across much of the Corn Belt and some sort of minor correction is probably in order.
Prices are slightly higher today in what is expected to be a light volume day heading into a three day weekend. Corn is up 1, soybeans 6 and wheat is up 9.

Thank you to all the Veterans who mad the ultimate sacrifice so that the rest of us could enjoy our freedom!

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 24, 2018

Good Morning,

Stronger markets this morning as the funds pour into the commodities. Overnight CZ18 made new contract highs and SX18 is on the cusp of making new highs. Wheat and Soybeans have been the catalyst for the commodities as US weather in the wheat growing regions are forecasted to be hot and dry. Soybeans have been stronger as traders are confident that China will resume buying US soybeans despite President Trumps comments the last few days.
Weekly exports were low for corn at 33.6 mln bu of old crop compared to the ten week average of 39 million. Soybean exports were terrible at -5.1 million bu. due to sales being cancelled. Despite the poor week, both commodities remain above the USDA projections for this time of year.
World and US weather will be the market movers the next couple days as traders take us on a wild ride higher or lower with each weather report that comes out. The best thing producers can do in a weather market is to make small sales on rallies and have firm offers in above the market. We see this type of trade every year and know that the markets will head lower before the weather changes and we realize sales should have been made. Don’t let a bullish mindset keep you from being profitable!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans moved higher yesterday, but closed off of the highs. With weather continuing to look favorable with moisture in the Delta and drier in the corn belt in the coming week. Despite some of the weather challenges we are seeing in WI, this year’s corn planting progress is at 81% complete for the US and 56% for Wisconsin. The five year average is 81% for the US and 66% for WI.
President Trump reiterated yesterday afternoon that the US and China have yet to reach a deal on trade, adding that he is “not pleased” with how the talks are progressing. While the talks with China were “a start”, Trump said he’s not yet satisfied. This news was a setback for the stock market and the commodity markets after it appeared that things were progressing following Sunday’s comments from the US Treasury Secretary. The good news is that there are no meetings planned for a couple of weeks between the two countries which may allow traders to focus on fundamentals thru the end of the month.
I look for the markets to back off slightly heading into the weekend with a three day break coming up. Long term I still believe we have another 15-20 cents to the upside in corn between now and the end of June.
Producers should be taking advantage of these rainy days to talk to their buyers about putting in firm offers on any old crop corn sales they have left to make. You should also be getting sales on the books and putting in firm offers for new crop corn. With levels over $4, producers should have 25% of your 2018 production and 10% of your 2019 crop sold.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com