November 2, 2018

Good Morning,

After mutual statements of optimism about trade talks from Presidents Trump and Xi yesterday, the markets responded with sharp price gains led by soybeans. While this was a great move in the markets (corn up 3 and soybeans up 30) producers need to remember that this was just a knee jerk reaction to a “tweet” by our president and holds no water until a deal is reached. We have seen the market move both ways over the last several months on comments that were made. We also need to remember that if a deal is worked out, the Chinese have found protein replacements for US soy products over the last six months which means their demand will not come back to previous levels. We also have to look at how competitive our soybean prices are on the world market. Prior to yesterday’s rally, US soybeans were $.70/bu. more expensive than Brazilian soybeans! What could be key for the US is if we can get a deal done in the very short term with China. We have about a 10 week window before South American soybeans become readily available again.
Next Thursday’s USDA report will be the focus of traders early next week. Yesterday private analyst FC Stone pegged the corn yield at 181.4 vs. their October estimate of 182.7 and dropped their soybean yield from 54 to 53.2.
Market movers the next 5 trading days will be:
Harvest Progress
Election Results
USDA Report

We have a HOT DEAL for producers looking to move corn in April/May this coming year. You can lock in a basis of -10 CK19!!! Give us a call for details.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 1, 2018

Good Morning,

Here is the news that is moving the market today:

Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2018

I would advise producers not to get too excited as this tweet as history has told us that we could see another “tweet” in the next hour that puts the markets on the defensive.

SELL THE BOUNCES!!!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 31, 2018

Good Morning,

It appears that weaker markets are in store to end the month. October offered some hope as we rallied 22 cents in the first 15 days only to fall 15 cents in the last 15 days. With heavy harvest activity and little to no news on the political side the markets will remain range bound. I would expect both corn and soybeans to trade lower today as traders pocket some money at month end. The good news is that the funds started the month short 125k corn contracts and are now long 19k contracts.
Ag Secretary Perdue confirmed that a second round of payments will be coming to farmers, most likely in the same amount as the first. While this is not very lucrative for corn producers who receive .005/bu in the first payment for bushels produced this year, it is very good for soybean producers who received .825/bu in the first payment. The $1.65 MFP payment would bump most cash prices to well over $9/bu.
I would advise producers looking for space this fall to lock in basis contracts vs. the CH which would give you a couple months for the markets to rally back to better levels. This is a great way to give yourself time to price while avoiding high storage charges that are being charged by warehouses. Give us a call for more details.

We will be closing our scale at 3:00 pm today to help make the streets of Cambria safer for Trick or Treating. We will resume normal 7-7 hours on Thursday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 29, 2018

Good Morning,

Fridays rally in the corn market was driven by wheat prices. With the US securing some of the Egyptian wheat tender last week we saw wheat make a nice rally. Right now this is appears to be the only support that corn can find. I look for corn direction in the next two weeks to come from export or sales news in the wheat market until we get to the November S&D report on 11/8/18. Traders are anxiously looking to this report to see if the USDA reduces corn yield again. We should start to see private estimates released later this week.
Good harvest weather over the past week has traders estimating the corn crop is about 60% harvested which would be up from 49% last week.
Brazil looks to be on pace to increase first and second crop corn acres this year due to demand while the US is expected to see a large acreage shift from soybeans to corn next spring. If these two scenarios play out I believe producers should be aggressive sellers of next year’s crop before the US crop goes in the ground.

Be sure to join us on Tuesday 10/30/18 as Compeer Financial will be onsite from 11:00 -1:30 serving lunch.

We will be closing our scale at 3pm on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 26, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are currently up seven cents each. This is ahead of a wet forecast, which could slow down harvest progress for a week.

• USDA reported export sales of 260,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations.
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 34% of corn planted, with the early planting window coming to a close.
• Week ended 10/18 reporting US corn sales 32% ahead of last year, with a total outlook for the year of 2% ahead of last year.

Note that fall bids are in the $3.30 levels and February corn is at $3.60. Make sure to take time to watch markets during this busy harvest season.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

October 25, 2018

Good Morning,

Weaker markets again this morning with corn and soybeans both opening 3-4 lower. Corn, Beans and Wheat have all fallen out of their key trading ranges and below key support levels this week. With a dry US forecast allowing harvest to progress we are going to need the speculative buyer to return to this market to change course.
• Weekly export sales were very disappointing with corn at 13.8 million bu. compared to a ten week average of 29. Soybeans came in at 7.8 million bu. compared to a ten week average of 19.
• Weekly ethanol production rose 13,000 barrels/day to 1.02 million. Production is below the 1.068 million pace needed to meet USDA estimates. Ethanol stocks fell 233,000 barrels to 23.9 million barrels.
• The Wall Street Journal reports the US is refusing to engage in trade talks with China until a “concrete proposal” is presented that addresses US complaints about forced technology transfers. The G20 meeting at the end of November is already being questioned if something can be done then.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didonmilling.com

October 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Last night’s crop progress for corn was 49% complete which is up from 39% last week. Soybeans reached 53% complete which is up from 38% last week. The five year average for corn is 47% and 69% for soybeans. Both of these should climb substantially with this last weekend’s weather and forecasts for the coming week. Yield reports continue to come in very strong across the Midwest which means the crop appears to have survived the adverse weather better than feared leaving LARGE supplies.
It’s difficult to justify a rally in soybeans outside of the US getting a trade deal with China. Corn is trying to separate itself from the soy market, but is having difficulty generating any momentum given the size of this year’s crop. With early intentions for significantly more acres going to corn next spring it may be a long road ahead for both commodities. Cash prices for next fall are currently in the $3.70-3.75 range and should be viewed as a good sale for 20% of your expected production next year. Being pro-active with small sales is the best option in depressed markets with limited gains on the horizon.

Reminder that all loads delivered to Didion must be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 22, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans up 5 after a productive harvest weekend. Forecasts look good for corn and soybean harvest this week with slight chances of rain next weekend. This week’s weather should allow local producers to make significant progress or complete soybeans. Harvest progress will be released this afternoon and is expected to be ahead of last year and the five year average. Keep in minds that this afternoons report will not include all of the activity from the weekend.
Friday’s Cattle on feed was below expectations at 105.4% vs. 106.4%. Placements were 95.4% vs. 100.1% estimate and marketing’s were 96.4% vs. 97%.
Funds ended the week long just over 2000 contracts of corn after a strong week of buying. We will continue to monitor this position as it is a great indicator of where the market is headed.
Look for the markets to remain range bound with traders continuing to monitor export forecasts and South American weather.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 18, 2018

Good Morning,

Commodities are lower this morning as harvest is now widespread across the corn-belt with clear weather. Corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 13 to begin the day. We will watch to see if the CZ18 market can close above the 100 day moving average of 3.7175 today which it has for the past 3 days.
Weekly export sales were light for both corn and soybeans. Corn was reported at 15 million bushel which is about ½ of the ten week average. Soybean sales came in at 10.8 million bushels which is 8 million below the ten week average.
Both China and the US said a meeting regarding tariffs at the G20 summit in November may not happen. This may push the technical traders back to the bearish side until this meeting is officially happens. Increased exports to Argentina are not happening as logistics in Argentina are unable to handle additional volume.
Didion is still buying spot and contract corn for October or November delivery, but as harvest progresses this may not be the case. If you are going to need to move additional bushels this fall I would suggest making cash sales or basis sales ASAP. I would not be surprised to see basis to widen in the next week or two.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 16, 2018

Good Morning,

Turnaround Tuesday as corn, beans and wheat open 3-10-3 respectively lower this morning. Soybeans were the catalyst for all commodities yesterday as traders continued to cover their short positions. Talk of quality issues, strong NOPA crush and reports of sales to China added fuel to the funds buying. Corn followed along with some technical short covering taking place. The fund are now long corn for the first time since June 12, 2018.

Corn harvest pace is ahead of the 5 year average at 39% complete for the country. Wisconsin harvest is 11% ahead of last year and 3% ahead of the five year average at 19% complete. With a favorable week of weather ahead of us this should increase dramatically by next week’s report. I would expect the markets trade lower with harvest hedge pressure in the coming week unless we see more speculative money enter the commodities.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
ggard@didionmilling.com
920-348-6844