May 10, 2018

Good Morning,

USDA monthly stock report comes out at 11am today. Market is currently trading even, corn is expected to have a reduction in ending stocks due to smaller planted acres. Also watch as Brazil and Argentine crops may show reduction on the global outlook.

Weather is looking to not be in the farmer’s favor thru the end of the week, with a hopeful window coming for planting early to mid-next week.

Estimates for tomorrow’s report:

17/18 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
Wheat average estimate: 1.065
Corn average estimate: 2.178
Soybeans average estimate: .541

18/19 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
Wheat average estimate: .930
Corn average estimate: 1.628
Soybeans average estimate: .535

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

May 9, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans and wheat are all slightly lower this morning as traders look to remain neutral or remove some longs heading into tomorrow’s USDA S&D report. Estimates are for corn and wheat stocks to increase slightly while soybeans are expected to drop slightly from the April report. The USDA will also issue its first official estimate of US/World 2018-19 supply and demand. The trade is looking for lower corn carryout and higher soybean carryout.
Talk that China may not buy US soybeans for the remainder of the marketing year along with Chinese buyers canceling orders for US soybeans keeps the markets on edge.
The US Midwest weather forecast is unchanged as rains are seen moving through the middle of this week, then again over the weekend, and a third system the middle of next week.

Estimates for tomorrow’s report:

17/18 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA MAY AVE. ESTIMATE USDA APRIL
WHEAT 1.065 1.064
CORN 2.178 2.182
SOYBEANS .541 .550

18/19 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA MAY AVE. ESTIMATE USDA APRIL
WHEAT .930 NA
CORN 1.628 NA
SOYBEANS .535 NA

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard2didionmilling.com

May 8, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is currently up three after yesterday’s planting progress report came in ahead of expectations at 39% completed. This still comes in behind the five year average of 44%. Soybean progress is right on track at 15% as well.

Brazil’s second crop will be expected to drop after a reduction in planted acres, also drought in key producing areas. Beyond this global news, Trump will be announcing plans for the Iran Deal today. Watch for impact of these global events in coming days.

• The USDA will release its May crop production report on Thursday May 10th. This will be the first look at new crop balance sheets for wheat, corn and soybeans.
• Dryness continues in Southern Brazil but there is some rain forecasted in the 6-15 day forecasts.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

May 7, 2018

Good Morning,

Futures are starting the week lower as traders take some profit off of the table ahead of this week’s planting progress and stocks report. Tensions are growing after last week’s meeting between negotiations between the US and China proved largely unsuccessful at resolving the ongoing dispute. The US offered up a list of 8 demands that included a cut to the trade deficit by $200 Billion by 2020 and a cutback on government subsidies. For now the dialog will continue but the likelihood that the Trump administration is going to enforce the $50 Billion in tariffs on Chinese goods in late May or June is growing. China is likely to respond to those tariffs with a 25% duty on US soybeans of its own. Essentially, China already has an “embargo” of US beans in place. With China unable to land a cargo before the 25% duties start, it will most likely avoid new US soy purchases.
In other news:
• The USDA will release its May crop production report on Thursday May 10th. This will be the first look at new crop balance sheets for wheat, corn and soybeans.
• Dryness continues in Southern Brazil but there is some rain forecasted in the 6-15 day forecasts.
• This afternoons planting progress is estimated to come in at 37% complete compared to 17% last week and 44% for the five year average. Soybean planting is estimated to come in at 13% complete compared to 5% last week and 13% for the five year average. Weather towards the end of the week may not have been favorable for planting, but progress in the south was fast paced early in the week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 4, 2018

Good Morning,

Despite heavy rains in the upper Midwest the last 24 hours, the markets are under pressure this morning. Futures are trading lower with beans leading the move down after rumors late Thursday of a trade agreement that sparked a rally higher proved false. In fact, the US-Chinese negotiations ended with the US delegation delivering their list of demands; while, China sat largely silent. Corn is currently down 2, soybeans down 12 and wheat down 13! As I stated in yesterday’s comments I expect traders to reduce their short positions heading into the weekend.
Yesterday the Trump administration said it wants China to reduce the trade deficit with the U. S. by $200 billion dollars by the end of 2020. This was part of a list of demands given to Chinese officials at the beginning of trade talks yesterday. China’s state media says that talks between the two countries ended in Beijing with an agreement on how to work through escalating trade disputes but said large differences remain on many matters.
The last 24 hours have demonstrated that trying to trade politics is nearly impossible and there is a lot of uncertainty as these trade wars loom. Producers should be actively marketing grain with these recent rallies and not focus on the weather in their back yard as indicators of where they think the market may or may not go.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 3, 2018

Good Morning,

Yesterday corn, soybeans and wheat all ended the session lower as favorable weather forecasts for Argentina and southern Brazil. Soybean meal and wheat have been the drivers for corn and soybeans over the last week. I look for these commodities to continue being the drivers unless we see some changes in the Midwest weather pattern. There has been little to no premium added to the markets due to corn planting progress in the Midwest.
Trade talks between China and the US begin today but skeptics do not expect much to come from these talks as both parties dig their collective heels deeper into the sand in regards to not only grain tariffs, but strategic technologies.
Weekly export sales came in below the 10 week average for both corn and soybeans. Corn was 40.2 mln bu. while soybeans were only 15.3 mln bu.
Funds remain long 152k corn and 178k soybean contracts. Neither of these are recent records, but are very close which could result in some liquidation heading into the weekend.

Three items that traders will continue to monitor in the coming weeks are:
1. US and Chinese trade talks that start today in Beijing.
2. Weather forecasts that call for rain in southern Brazil in the 10-15 day range.
3. US weather forecasts and planting progress.

Markets are weaker this morning with corn down 2, soybeans down 5 and wheat down 4. The Funds remain long 152k corn and 178k soybean contracts. Neither of these are recent records, but are very close which could result in some liquidation heading into the weekend.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

May 1, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn, soybeans and wheat are trading slightly higher this morning up 3, 1 and 2 respectively. Wheat was the leader of the commodities yesterday with weather being the contributing factor. The western plains remain dry while the Midwest looks favorable for fieldwork over the next 6-10 days with small chances of rain in the middle of this week. Producers are trying to get corn in ahead of these rains to take advantage of the germination the rain would bring. Historically fast planted corn crops add corn acres.
Last night’s weekly crop progress report showed 17% of the corn crop planted which is up from last week’s 5% compared to 27% for the five year average. Wisconsin came in at 3% complete vs. 9% on the five year average. Look for these numbers to jump in next week’s report.
Producers should have firm offers in place with their buyers to take advantage of any weather swings we may see in the coming months. The last three years we have seen the market rally between the first of May and the end of June. With lower acres this year and expectations for yields to drop back to trend line, I would expect this trend continues this year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 30, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn planting is in full swing across much of the Midwest this week which should ease the concerns for late planting in the markets. Expectations for planting progress this afternoon are expected to be 17-20% complete compared to 27% on the five year average and 5% last week.
This morning corn is up 3, beans are up 2 and wheat is up 12. The following factors appear to be moving the markets this morning:
• Dryness in the plains continues to be a concern for wheat farmers and has wheat trading 12 higher today.
• Southern Brazil’s safrihna corn continues to deal with drought like conditions that are reducing the size of their crop.
• Last weeks accident at the largest meal export terminal in Argentina has soybean meal prices pushing higher. This is adding a little support to corn and soybeans domestically.

Producers should have firm offers in place with their buyers to take advantage of any weather swings we may see in the coming months. The last three years we have seen the market rally between the first of May and the end of June. With lower acres this year and expectations for yields to drop back to trend line, I would expect this trend continues this year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 26, 2018

Good Morning,

We are seeing some profit taking after yesterday’s run up in the markets. Corn is currently down 2 soybeans down 3 and wheat down 8.
Weekly export sales shoed corn at 27.4 million bu. which is 28 million below the ten week average. Soybeans were also low at 13.6 million bu. which is 22 million below the ten week average. To date corn and soybeans are ahead of the projected pace by 5% and 1% respectively. Exports could gain traction in the near future as dryness in southern Brazil remains a major concern.
The 6-10 day forecast for May 1st thru 5th shows above normal temps in most of the cornbelt with the exception of the far WCB which Is below normal temps.

Congratulations to everyone that took advantage of yesterday’s rally to lock in $4 corn. These opportunities need to be seized when they are presented.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 25, 2018

Good Morning,

The extended US forecast looks mostly favorable as the 6-10 day now shows above normal temperatures and drier across the Midwest. This will help corn and soybean planting progress, but the drier forecast is not offering any relief for wheat in the plains. Yesterday we saw wheat finish 10 higher which pulled corn 3 higher. This morning corn and wheat are both trading 3-4 higher and soybeans are 6 higher.
We have seen little to no premium added to the corn and soybean markets based on US weather and planting delays to this point. If current forecasts hold true, I don’t expect we will see any. However, weather premiums could come from South America. Dryness in the southern third of Brazil is causing concern for their second corn crop(Safrinha). The potential for lower Brazilian production is making US corn more competitive in the world market and could add to our export demand.
Trade tensions between the US and China continue to limit soybean exports with tariffs looming. China’s purchases of US soybeans have come to a halt following last week’s anti-dumping move on sorghum rattles the industry. Chinese buyers who consume 60% of the world’s soybeans have not signed a new deal to take US soybeans. Traders will continue to monitor this situation as they look for implementation or resolution of the pending tariffs.

Producers are advised to continue to have firm offers in place on old and new crop corn before you head to the fields.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com