April 30, 2019

Good Morning,

Quiet markets overnight as corn was up a half and soybeans were up 1. We saw early support in the market yesterday with a two week forecast showing cooler and wetter weather, but the record short position for traders continued as they sold off and the markets closed unchanged. Last nights corn planting progress came in at 15% complete which is up 9% from last week and the same as last year this time. We are behind the 5 year average of 27%. I believe we will have to get into the second full week of May with major planting delays before the market will begin to question the potential size of this years crop and add any premium. Traders will continue to monitor forecasts for direction.
The US and China are back at the table in Beijing today to continue the never ending trade talks. We don’t expect any resolution this week, but poor economic data coming out of China could spur them to act a little faster.
Traders were short 327,000 contract of corn and 149,000 contracts of soybeans after last nights close. This is down from last Tuesday’s record as traders take some profits heading into month end.

Producers should actively sell any rallies that we see in the markets as the potential weather market rally if seen, will not last long at all! I would advise selling cash corn in the $3.35-3.45 range for spring/summer and $3.50-3.60 range for fall delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 24, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets opened lower again this morning as the funds continue to drive the market by adding more short positions as weather provides no issues for planting. The funds combined position in corn, wheat and the bean complex is currently short 650,000 contracts. Last year on this date they were a combined long 400,000 contracts. Trade issues, production, surplus and weather have added to the 1 million contract swing in the last year. Corn is 25 cents lower than a year ago while soybeans are $1.50 lower than a year ago.
Don’t forget to put firm offers in for old and new crop corn before you head toe the fields. You don’t want to miss an opportunity to capture the best market for your crop because you were too busy planting it.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 23, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn made new contract lows yesterday and took out the low from two weeks ago. The lower trade has been influenced by a forecast. The outlook for the majority of the Midwest looks to be conducive to getting some field work done over the next several days before spotty storms hit the corn belt next week.
Last night’s crop progress report showed 6% of the US corn and 1% of the US beans have been planted. This compares to the 5% for corn last year and 2% for beans last year. Don’t look for the markets to add any premium to this market based on late plantings unless we get to the 2nd week of May and are significantly behind.
Funds closed yesterday’s trade short 349,000 contracts and 101,000 bean contracts! Much to everyone that is long the physical crops, these long positions are not a catalyst for the markets to rally. Every short position that traders are currently holding is in the green! (profitable) Producers should be aggressively selling any small bounces in the market as weather this summer may be the producers only hope to move the markets slightly higher.

Don’t forget to put firm offers in for old and new crop corn before you head to the fields. You don’t want to miss an opportunity to capture the best market for your crop because you were too busy planting it.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 22, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are lower this morning as weather forecasts show a favorable outlook for much of the next week. Open interests continues to grow contrary to seasonal trends and despite the funds holding record short positions. Traders are currently short 315,000 contracts of corn which is 15% higher than the previous record.
The weather this week looks favorable for farmers to get into the fields and being planning this year’s crop in the northern corn-belt. Forecasts are for the warm/dry conditions this week will be followed by cooler and wetter conditions next week. Trade will add very little to the market in terms of weather premium unless we get into the first couple of weeks of May with continued wet weather.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 18, 2019

Good Morning,

Softer markets this morning with corn and soybeans down 1 and wheat down 3. The funds are in the midst of rolling their May shorts to July, but we have seen very little movement to the upside so far this week with this action. Traders are holding a record short position in the corn market of 302,000 contracts.
Traders are continuing to look for news to trade, but the lack of fundamental news continues to be the story. US weather shows a warming trend over the next couple weeks with mixed forecasts for rain depending on what weather model you follow. US and Chinese trade news will continue to do nothing to the market until we get some concrete agreements in place.
Export sales were disappointing this morning for beans as they came in at the lower end of expectations with just 14 million bushels. Corn was a little better than expected with 37.3 million bushels. Corn exports are running above what is necessary to reach the USDA’s current estimate for 2018/19, however, the large crops coming out of South America will probably have crops becoming available soon. In fact offers out of the Gulf are running about 35 cents more than ones out of Argentina for delivery from June to August. This will most likely make matching last years pace for the remainder of the marketing year an uphill battle unless the World surplus begins to shrink .

Reminder that the markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday.

Didion Grain Receiving will be closed Friday 4/19/19.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 15, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn is currently trading up three and Soybeans up six. Short covering is taking place today, after trade is seeing the effects on delays that last week’s snow storm caused. This afternoon USDA will release planting progress, with an estimate being that USDA will note 6% of the U.S. corn crop planted.

The Japanese are in Washington this week to talk trade with President Trump. Not much activity is expected as much of the U.S trade delegation is working on finishing up talks with China. With that being said, U.S. and China are close to agreeing on enforcement mechanisms of their trade deal, and closing on it entirely (So they say).

Please update offers on old crop and new crop, even with a flat market we need to be prepared if there is a small rally that could meet some price targets. Consider some new crop bids sitting around $3.80 January to close to $4.00 for Spring and Summer of 2020.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

April 12, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn is currently trading even, and Soybeans up two. The second bomb cyclone has delayed spring fieldwork across much of the Midwest by bringing ice, snow, and even blizzard like conditions to most areas. Trade is watching as the full affects are yet to be seen. China and US trade talks continue, with China making a huge pork purchase recently.

Secretary of Ag Sonny Perdue announced there is no program to aid the farmers affected with grain and storage loss in Nebraska, flooding damage resulted from the Mid-March winter storm. However, Iowa and Nebraska lawmakers announced measures to aid those affected with tax and retirement withdrawals.

Please update offers on old crop and new crop, even with a flat market we need to be prepared if there is a small rally that could meet some price targets. Consider some new crop bids sitting $3.80 to close to $4.00 for Spring and Summer of 2020.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

April 9, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are starting the day lower with corn down 2 and soybeans down 1. USDA S&D numbers will be released at 11am this morning and estimates are for higher stocks in all three major commodities. (see estimates below) To see what the uphill climb prices face, we not only have to look at US stocks, but world stocks.

USDA 2018-19 ending stocks(billion bushels)
USDA April Average Est. USDA March
Corn 2.035 1.991 1.835
Soybeans .895 .898 .900
Wheat 1.087 1.072 1.055

USDA World ending stocks (Million Metric Ton)
USDA April Average Est. USDA March
Corn 314.01 311.16 308.53
Soybeans 107.36 108.04 107.17
Wheat 275.61 271.00 270.53

Last night’s Crop Progress report showed the US at 2% planted for corn. Leading the way was Texas with 53%, Tennessee with 8% and Missouri, Nebraska and Kentucky all at 2%.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 8, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are up two in beans, 1 in corn. News is pretty limited on trade talks this morning. Meetings wrapped up, and at this point further talks will be via video conference for the remainder of the week. No date is set for a signing of a new agreement. Chief economist Kudlow stated that there are still issues to be worked out, but progress was made. More of the same, as this looks to drag out for eternity. “If we have a deal, then we’ll have a summit,” President Trump said.

Historic March floods are having impact on the ethanol industry. Ethanol shortages are pushing gas prices above 4 dollars in California, the highest price since 2014. Supply disruptions from rail, and currently close to 13 percent of plants are offline.

Tuesday the USDA will release updated supply and demand reports. The USDA will factor in the stocks report for March, but will not work in acres for 2019 production yet. There were 300 million bushels of corn that will need to be adjusted down in feed, exports and ethanol. Carryout is expected to be close to 2 billion bushels for corn. Changes of less the 50 million bushels are expected in soybeans. Chinese bean purchases will keep bean stocks from growing. Overall the S&D report will have a bearish tone, but it is also mostly priced into the market.

Have a Great Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 3, 2019

Good Morning,

Quiet markets again this morning with corn and soybeans both hovering around unchanged to up 1.
The Chinese delegation will be in the US tomorrow and President Trump says talks are going very well. Funds are estimated to be short over 250,000 contracts as of today; the question is what it is going to take for them to cover their short.
Texas was at 51% planted on yesterday’s state progress report, and we will get the US progress report next Monday. If the weather holds there will be some planters to start rolling in Central Illinois next week.
Large inventories of corn and soybeans remain a significant problem and will continue to weigh on the markets. The trade deal would provide a lift as an additional $50 billion of Chinese spending will create new demand that should help.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com