November 11, 2019

Good Morning,

Happy Veteran’s Day and Thank You to everyone that has and still does serve our nation!

Weaker markets to start the week off with corn down 2 and soybeans down 9.
The trade negotiations with China appear to have slowed again over the weekend as president Trump denied that he has agreed to rollback tariffs.

With Fridays report behind us and no major surprises in the USDA’s numbers from the October report, traders will now have little fundamental news to move the markets for a couple months. The weekly progress report will be delayed until tomorrow due to Veterans Day. Trade is looking for tomorrows report to show 65% of the nations corn and 85% of the nations soybeans harvested.

There are no major weather changes in the 1-5 day forecast for Brazil with rains still expected to help replenish the moisture profiles across the central and northern soybean growing regions.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 8, 2019

Good Morning,

Quiet markets to open the day as traders await the 11am WASDE report. (Estimates listed below) Heading into today’s report the spec funds are carrying a rather large short position in corn and long position in soybeans given the private estimates for today’s report. This could set up for some major reversal trade if today’s numbers come in near the private estimates. I personally think today’s report is going to show a higher yield in corn and unchanged harvested acres. While the major focus will initially be on yield and acres, the final ending stocks number will set the tone for trade after today up to the January report. If ending stocks are not lowered (due to decreased production or increased demand) we will see a lid on the market at least until the next WASDE report. (January)

China made headlines yesterday when it stated that it agreed to a deal with the US to roll back many of the tariffs imposed during the trade war. That suggests that China is trying to use the media to leverage the trade talks, putting the pressure on the US to agree to such in order to get phase one deal done. President Xi knows that President Trump needs a political win in the upcoming election in the face of the House’s impeachment inquiry and knows that Trump would not want to be seen as the one who failed to get the deal done.

Corn
USDA November Ave. Estimate USDA October
Production 13.661 13.643 13.779
Yield 167.0 167.5 168.4
Harvested Acres 81.815 81.455 81.815
Ending Stocks 1.910 1.817 1.929

Soybeans
USDA November Ave. Estimate USDA October
Production 3.550 3.510 3.550
Yield 46.9 46.6 46.9
Harvested Acres 75.626 75.422 75.626
Ending Stocks .475 .428 .460

Be sure the check back in after 11am for today’s numbers.

*We are currently NOT discounting or rejecting for vomitoxin*

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 5, 2019

Good Morning,

The corn market it trading 2 lower and soybeans are 3 lower this morning as trade continues to position ahead of Fridays report. Funds are currently short 102,000 corn and long 74,000 soybean contracts.
Last nights crop progress report showed US corn harvest 52% complete compared to 41% last week and 75% on the five year average. Wisconsin came in at 21% complete compared to 51% on average. Soybean harvest was reported at 75% complete compared to 87% for the five year average. Wisconsin came in at 62% complete compared to 85% for the five year average. Favorable weather this week across the US should bump both of these numbers significantly by next Monday.

Brazilian soybean growers have planted 46% of the estimated area in the 2019/2020 crop, below the level of 60% seen last year. Despite the slower pace of planting compared to 2018, soybean planting is above the five year average of 43%. Brazil will harvest an estimated record 121 million tons of soybeans this year after increasing planted acres by 1.3% to 90 million acres.

Positive news this morning is that trade talks are reaching the critical final stages of a “Phase 1” deal, but both sides are doing some last minute haggling to benefit their side. While these talks and negotiations are not new, the progress definitely is. My personal opinion is that the Chinese hold more power in these negotiations at this point that President Trump. I think they can wait him out thru the next US Presidential election before they have to give in. If he wins the next election then they come back to the drawing board. If he loses (which would most likely happen without him reaching a deal), then they get someone new to deal with.

If you are going to be short on space for fall bushels give us a call to find out what great alternatives we have to paying storage.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 4, 2019

Good Morning,

Lower in corn and higher in soybeans to start the week. Corn is currently down 3 and soybeans are up 5. Harvest pressure is weighing on the corn markets as producers made decent progress over the weekend. Progress is expected to reach 55% complete over eth weekend as there were no major weather issues across the Midwest to slow down the farmers. The five year average for this date is 74%.
Fridays WASDE report will be the focus of most traders this week as they debate where the USDA will put yield and harvested acres. This will be the agencies last report and last chance at an adjustment until the final report in January. One private analyst on Friday estimated the corn production at 13.911 billion bushels, up from their previous estimate of 13.887. They also increased their yield to 170.0 bpa, up from 169.3 last month.
Support in the bean market is coming on the heels of Bloomberg reporting that President Xi of China is going to schedule a visit to Washington DC to meet personally with President Trump in the next couple weeks. The thinking is that the purpose of this visit is to sign the Phase 1 agreement.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 1, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly firmer to end the week with corn up 1 and soybeans up 4 to start the day. Yesterday’s export sales report showed corn in the middle of the range of expectations but expectations are low with the trend of lower weekly volumes. US corn continues to lag South American offers in the November thru January time slot.
Weather forecasts remain colder and wetter for the first half of November with the second half showing normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation.
One week from today the USDA will issue its last Crop Production and Supply and Demand report for the year. Traders and producers are hoping for a drop in yield and harvested acres in this report to support and possibly give the market a little life. It is interesting to note that in 21 of the last 28 November WASDE reports, the trend in yield has been to follow the October report. (Exp – If the October report had an increase in yield, the November report would also have an increase) Based on early reports from the fields this year I would not be surprised to see an increase in yield next Friday. We continue to receive reports locally and across the Midwest that yields are much better than expected.
I would advise producers to take advantage of the historically tight basis levels we are seeing across the Midwest to get some basis sales made for November thru July. Lock in the basis levels and price it out when the CBOT breaks out of the current sideways trend.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 31, 2019

October 31, 2019

Happy Halloween, Merry Christmas,

Not sure what we should call today with the snow flying like its December 30th. The markets are weaker this am with corn down 5 and soybeans down 4. A lot of the pressure is coming from news that Chile has cancelled the APEC meeting that was supposed to take place in November. This is the meeting where Chinese president Xi and US President Trump were to sign a phase 1 agreement. Rumors this morning are that Chinese sources are suggesting a long term agreement with the US is doubtful unless Trump rolls back tariffs. The White House says that they still want to sign the agreement in November but an alternative meeting sight or date for the signing is still unknown.
Producers that have been in the fields and have grain dried in your bins should take advantage of these “non-harvest” days to move corn to town on any fall contracts you may have. This will keep you from battling harvest lines in the coming weeks when everyone is in the field and trying to move grain to town.

While it may seem bad right now, here is a reminder that it can always be worse! (North Dakota 3 weeks ago.)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 29, 2019

Good Morning,

President Trump suggested on late Monday that enough progress had been made in negotiations with the Chinese that he intended on signing Phase one of the trade deal in November. This coincides with an article out of the South China Morning Post this AM reporting that Chinese President Xi and President Trump are tentatively expected to meet on November 17 with the aim of signing an interim trade deal. If everything goes smoothly, the two leaders are expected to come face-to-face immediately after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Santiago, Chile.
China still desires the cancellation of some of the existing and planned tariffs in exchange for the large purchases of US Ag products. Export demand remains lackluster and it is assumed that the Chinese will want to secure the good based on the market conditions. This should help support spot-market prices below $9 in beans and $3.80 in corn.
That has much as much to do with South America, at this point, as anything. Ag products are squarely in the Argentine President’s cross hairs and all the uncertainty surrounding his new plan. News that Argentina was looking at raising export taxes on soybeans to 25% and corn to 7% has led to all FOB offers beyond November/December being pulled. This is huge for us given how cheap Argentine grain has been with wheat the cheapest in the world by about $10/MT and corn running about 25 cents over the board versus 58 cents over out of the Gulf.
Last nights corn harvest progress report showed the US increase by 11% from the previous week and now sits at 41% complete compared to 61% on average. A huge increase in IL to 54% was the big surprise for the week. WI is reported at 13% complete.

Snowfall over the last 24 hours should slow harvest progress in some areas of the Midwest, especially in soybeans. This will lead to an increase in corn harvest as producers that have been working to finish up soybeans will now switch to corn for the remainder of the week while beans try to dry out.

Don’t forget to join us for lunch today as Compeer Financial will be serving bag lunches from 11:00am – 1:30pm.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
ggard@didionmilling.com
920-348-6844

October 25, 2019

Good Morning,

Not much life in the market over the past few days, export sales are continuing to not give the market the boost everyone is hoping for. Today US and Chinese trade officials are making plans to talk on Chinese Ag purchases, in return of US dropping some tariffs. Upper Midwest, including locally, looks to have had strong frost and freezing overnight-beyond the normal weather delays we’ve been experiencing this fall.

Locally harvest is starting to be underway for many producers, make sure to contact us for options for delivery and keep posting via text and website for weekend/harvest hours. Contracting, spot, and other options are available.
Corn is currently up one and soybeans down four.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

October 23, 2019

Good Morning,

Rumors continue to swirl the last two days that the Chinese may be buying 10 mmt of tariff free soybeans with the hope that corn, ethanol and sorghum would be included. Unfortunately traders are failing to rally on these rumors or hold any strength in the markets. Heavy farmer selling as harvest progresses in the US seems to be limiting gains on the CBOT and is starting to force basis levels wider across the US. With producers sitting very “undersold” for the crop that they are currently harvesting and yields coming in better than expected sales are starting to ramp up. If you are in this camp, I would strongly urge you to get basis locked in on any fall deliveries you will have to make.
On the positive side the funds continue to reduce their short position in corn (-68,000 contracts) and add to their long position in soybeans (+63,000 contracts). This trend has been taking place over the last several weeks which is a good sign.
Artic air is coming down from Canada and will remain here until the 4th or 5th of November. This cold air pushes the majority of any rain to the South and East. While it may be cold, at least the rain will be out of the forecast.

Corn and soybeans are both trading 2 lower this morning.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 15, 2019

Good Morning,

The saga continues as China wants to negotiate more concessions. Not only do they want to see the October and December tariffs delayed, they want to see some of the tariffs that have been put in place rolled back before they commit to big Ag purchases. For now it appears that we have proposals but no deal.
While the storms were bad, the excessive snow did not cover as big of an area as predicted last week but the idea that some damage has been done should provide support. It will take time before the market can get an idea of how much damage was done by the snow and freezing temperatures over the weekend. I would not expect this to be captured in the November WASDE, but some of it could be.

Corn and beans are lower this morning as things with China have simmered and will take time to get the first phase agreed upon. Both commodities have had a sizable run in the last few days and may be running out of steam for the time being.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com