April 25, 2018

Good Morning,

The extended US forecast looks mostly favorable as the 6-10 day now shows above normal temperatures and drier across the Midwest. This will help corn and soybean planting progress, but the drier forecast is not offering any relief for wheat in the plains. Yesterday we saw wheat finish 10 higher which pulled corn 3 higher. This morning corn and wheat are both trading 3-4 higher and soybeans are 6 higher.
We have seen little to no premium added to the corn and soybean markets based on US weather and planting delays to this point. If current forecasts hold true, I don’t expect we will see any. However, weather premiums could come from South America. Dryness in the southern third of Brazil is causing concern for their second corn crop(Safrinha). The potential for lower Brazilian production is making US corn more competitive in the world market and could add to our export demand.
Trade tensions between the US and China continue to limit soybean exports with tariffs looming. China’s purchases of US soybeans have come to a halt following last week’s anti-dumping move on sorghum rattles the industry. Chinese buyers who consume 60% of the world’s soybeans have not signed a new deal to take US soybeans. Traders will continue to monitor this situation as they look for implementation or resolution of the pending tariffs.

Producers are advised to continue to have firm offers in place on old and new crop corn before you head to the fields.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 23, 2018

April 23, 2018

Good Morning,

After ticking fractionally lower overnight to match last week’s lows, the corn market has found some buying as traders expect nominal gains to US planting progress this afternoon. Reports of good progress occurring this weekend across parts of the ECB and planting should expand this week with warmer temperatures and drier conditions. Corn planting is expected to be between 7-8% this afternoon compared to 3% last week and 13% for the five year average.

Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on feed report showed all cattle on feed as of April 1 at 107.4% of last year. Placements came in at 90.7% of last year and marketing’s at 96.1%% of last year.
The soybean market is trading lower this morning with little fresh news to trade and nothing new on the US/China trade relations. China has been buying soybeans from Paraguay recently.

Congratulations to producers who took advantage of our May/Dec Accumulator contract last week to lock in $3.80 May corn and potential $4.00 December corn. Being proactive and taking advantage of these “accumulator” contracts are a great marketing strategy.

Producers should be actively placing firm offers with their buyers for new crop sales that are hovering near the $4 range. Take advantage of the down time you have before you head to the fields to talk with your buyers to get targets set for the crop you will be planting. For most producers it is difficult to find time to make sales or put firm offers in once you are busy planting. This is also the time that we could see spikes in the market due to weather issues around the country.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

April 20, 2018

Good Morning,

The market selloff continues this morning as corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 7 due to favorable forecasts for the coming weeks.

Long term the market outlook is higher with US ending stocks expected to decline in the 2018/19 season due to lower acres. Our first look at projections for new crop carryout from the USDA will be released on May 10th. With intentions for lower planted acres we should see a decrease in ending stocks even with trend yields. With corn plantings likely to struggle to reach normal pace in the coming weeks we could struggle to meet trend yields. With a trend line yield of 174 bpa and conservative demand numbers, ending stocks would come in near 1.35 billion bushels with a stocks/usage ration of 9.1% compared with 2.18 billion and 14.8% this year.

My thought is that corn acres increase from the USDA’s March projections if weather forecasts hold true for a couple reasons. 1. The USDA is projecting an increase in wheat and hay acres that I expect to change due to the spring weather in the plains and lower prices for wheat due to world supply and competition from other commodities. 2. The idea of more burdensome ending stocks for this season and even higher stocks next season are weighing on prices. 3. Producers that have yet to lock in sales of soybeans have seen a drop in the soybean/corn price ratio over the last two months.

Producers should be actively placing firm offers with their buyers for new crop sales that are hovering near the $4 range. Take advantage of the down time you have before you head to the fields to talk with your buyers to get targets set for the crop you will be planting. For most producers it is difficult to find time to make sales or put firm offers in once you are busy planting. This is also the time that we could see spikes in the market due to weather issues around the country.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

April 19, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are quite this morning as both trade within 1 cent of unchanged. Wheat is 2 higher on concerns of less rain than forecasted earlier in the week.

Corn and soybean’s continue to trade sideways while we monitor US/Chinese tensions over tariffs. China has threatened to add a 25% tariff for us soybeans, but news that Argentina will import US soybeans has kept the markets from falling. With tariffs already in place on sorghum there is a fear that this will replace some US corn demand and may replace corn exports to certain countries. Rumors yesterday that some large US exporters of corn are offering sorghum at discounted levels in an effort to move the commodity. There have also been reports of ADM asking Mexico if they would be willing to switch current corn sales with sorghum at discounted prices.

Weekly export sales released this morning showed corn at 43 million bu. for the week ending 4/12/18 which is 17 million behind the ten week average. Corn has caught up with projections for the year over the last 4 weeks. Going forward we will look to maintain or exceed the estimates to help reduce the burdensome carryout.

Producers should be actively placing firm offers with their buyers for new crop sales that are hovering in the $4 range. Take advantage of the down time you have before you head to the fields to talk with your buyers to get targets set for the crop you will be planting. For most producers it is difficult to find time to make sales or put firm offers in once you are busy planting. This is also the time that we could see spikes in the market due to weather issues around the country.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

April 18, 2018

Good Morning,

So far this week the market does not seem to be concerned with the cooler and wetter weather causing a slower planting pace. Old crop supplies have been able to keep the markets in check as we work thru the less than desirable spring weather. I don’t look for the markets to add much premium unless we see a change in forecasts for the next couple weeks. If plantings do get delayed we could see a tightening of ending stocks in 2019 which would offer opportunity to any sellers. The US Midwest weather forecast looks to become more favorable with the end of the week looking warmer and drier.

Producers should be actively placing firm offers with their buyers for new crop sales that are hovering in the $4 range. Take advantage of the down time you have before you head to the fields to talk with your buyers to get targets set for the crop you will be planting. For most producers it is difficult to find time to make sales or put firm offers in once you are busy planting. This is also the time that we could see spikes in the market due to weather issues around the country.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

April 17, 2018

Good Morning,

 

The markets remain quiet this morning after yesterday’s selloff in all commodities. Yesterday’s selloff in corn and soybeans was a combination of following wheat prices lower, soybean loadings being short of the USDA’s forecast and funds reduction their long positions. Export inspections yesterday showed the US is averaging about 12 mbu per week in the last 20 weeks while the USDA’s forecast demands 26 mbu per week to achieve. Corn exports are running about 7.8 mmt behind a year ago and set to miss the USDA’s projections by 100 mbu.

Yesterday afternoons planting progress shoed corn at 3% planted vs. 6% last year and a five year average of 5%. Cool and wet weather should keep the number low on next week’s report which will start to garner more interest from traders. The 10-20 day forecasts are the focus of traders at the present time with temperatures expected to warm up. If we see this drier and warmer pattern get pushed out beyond the first of May, I would expect the markets to react.

Producers need to keep an eye on these weather reports and also need to realize that weather premiums may arise, but will be short lived.

 

Make sure you have firm offers in with your buyers for old and new crop corn.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

 

April 16, 2018

Good Morning,

Despite the wonderful weather we are currently experiencing, the markets are trading lower this morning. Corn is down 2 and soybeans are down 4 to start the week. Corn and soybeans are currently following wheat lower. The wheat market is trading lower on ideas that the winter wheat crop can be saved by the widespread rains that are expected to come late this week and into the weekend. Experts are also expecting that this past weekend’s freezing temperatures are not expected to cause much damage to the winter wheat crop.
Reports that soybean production out of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay is projected to be 6.0 billion bushels, or 37% larger than the record US 2017 soybean harvest of 4.3 billion! With the expectation of US producers planting more acres to soybeans this spring (when it does come), I expect soybean prices to drift lower making the return on corn greater.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com