October 16, 2018

Good Morning,

Turnaround Tuesday as corn, beans and wheat open 3-10-3 respectively lower this morning. Soybeans were the catalyst for all commodities yesterday as traders continued to cover their short positions. Talk of quality issues, strong NOPA crush and reports of sales to China added fuel to the funds buying. Corn followed along with some technical short covering taking place. The fund are now long corn for the first time since June 12, 2018.

Corn harvest pace is ahead of the 5 year average at 39% complete for the country. Wisconsin harvest is 11% ahead of last year and 3% ahead of the five year average at 19% complete. With a favorable week of weather ahead of us this should increase dramatically by next week’s report. I would expect the markets trade lower with harvest hedge pressure in the coming week unless we see more speculative money enter the commodities.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
ggard@didionmilling.com
920-348-6844

October 15, 2018

Good Morning,

Soybeans are leading the way higher this morning as they try to maintain last week’s upward trend. Currently trading 10 higher this market is looking for life that may not be around long. President trump commented on Saturday that the Chinese President may not be ready to make a deal when the two leaders meet at the G20 meeting in Argentina.
Corn is trading 2 higher to start the week. A weaker dollar is helping support the export markets and offering hope that we will see improves sales in Q4 for corn.
Weather across the corn-belt looks to be dry for this week and beyond while temperatures remain below average.
Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
92-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 12, 2018

Good Morning,

Yesterday’s USDA report was a pleasant surprise for producers with a little boost in the markets. The rally yesterday was a result of lower US yields and technical and fundamental buying that followed. US yields were dropped to 180.7 from 181.3 last month and below the average guess of 181.8. A cut in feed demand of 25 million bushels due to sorghum feeding and an increase in exports of 75 million bushels resulted in a 1.813 billion bu. carryout.
Corn is unchanged and soybeans are trading 5 higher on the open as we head into a favorable harvest weather weekend. Despite yesterday’s news and slight increase in the markets, I believe we are range bound until something drastic happens with the demand side. (exports/politics) 1.813 billion bushels is by no means a tight carryout and will offer resistance to the corn market going forward. I look for CZ18 to remain range bound $3.50-3.80 on the board.
Here are yesterday’s report numbers:

USDA 2018/19 Production (billion bu)
USDA October Ave. Estimate USDA September
Corn Production 14.778 14.872 14.827
Corn Yield 180.7 181.8 181.3
Harvested Acres 81.8 81.72 81.80
Bean Production 4.690 4.733 4.693
Bean Yield 53.1 53.3 52.8
Harvested Acres 88.3 88.72 88.90

USDA Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA September Ave. Estimate USDA August
Wheat .956 .950 .935
Corn 1.813 1.919 1.774
Soybeans .885 .898 .845

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 11, 2018

Good Morning,

Markets are mixed ahead of today’s USDA report. Trade is anticipating record corn and soybean yields that will increase stocks. Corn is down 1 and soybeans are up 2 as support levels are challenged in both commodities. Whether or not corn support levels hold will depend on the reaction to a potential nationwide yield around 182 bpa and a carryout that could increase another 150-200 million bushels.
Initially we may see trade react negatively to this report but longer term could see things stabilize if traders begin to question the impact of heavy rains the past couple weeks. We must remember that today’s numbers are from a survey that was completed on October 1st.

Estimates for today’s report:

USDA 2018/19 Production (billion bu)
USDA October Ave. Estimate USDA September
Corn Production 14.872 14.827
Corn Yield 181.8 181.3
Harvested Acres 81.72 81.80
Bean Production 4.733 4.693
Bean Yield 53.3 52.8
Harvested Acres 88.72 88.90

USDA Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA September Ave. Estimate USDA August
Wheat .950 .935
Corn 1.919 1.774
Soybeans .898 .845

Have as Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 10, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn saw some pre report positioning again yesterday and this morning as it closed down -.02 yesterday and is down 2 today. USDA progress report yesterday afternoon estimated corn harvested progress at 34% complete vs last week at 26%, compared to the year ago week at 21%.

• Wet weather continues to plague the corn belt but forecasts are calling for things to clear early tomorrow for a considerable stretch for most of the Midwest.
• The USDA October S&D report will be released Thursday at 11am. Private analysts are calling for a ½ to 1 bpa increase in both corn and bean yields from the USDA September report.
• India has stepped up to fill some of the void left by the trade war between China and the US. Indian exports to China have increased 53% from April thru August year on year.

Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 8, 2018

Good Morning,

Weaker markets this morning with corn and beans both trading 3 lower to open the week. Last week the funds reduced their short position in corn by 75,000 contracts. The decrease in funds short position last week is outweighing the wet Midwest weather.
I look for the markets to establish a sideways pattern this week with the amount of short covering we have seen and expectation for bearish report on Thursday. We could see another round of short covering if the dryer forecast for the middle of this week gets pushed back any further.
Thursdays report will be the second to last update to corn and soybean forecasts until the final January report. Experts are calling for Thursday’s numbers to show a 1 bpa yield increase in both corn and soybeans.
Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 5, 2018

Good Morning,

Weather finally appears to be getting the attention of traders as harvest delays continue across the Midwest. With forecasts for rain thru the middle of next week for the majority of the upper Midwest we are seeing the funds cover some of their long standing short positions. The concern over lost yield in soybeans and poor quality in corn due to the excessive rains has gained some momentum this week.
The funds have reduced their short corn position by 22,000 contracts in the last week. Soybeans shorts have only been reduced by 5,000 in the last week.
While we have seen and may see some more short covering with the weather premiums the size of this years crop does not appear that it is going to shrink enough to send the markets significantly higher. I look for this to be confirmed next week in the USDA’s October S&D report that will be released on Thursday. Private analysts are expecting both corn and soybeans to be higher than the USDAs September report by as much as 1 bpa on corn and beans.

Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making small sales for December and January to core out there bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making small sales for the fall of 2019 with prices in the $3.70 range.

Have a Safe weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 4, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are both up 1 to start the day. Export sales released this morning showed corn at 56 million bushel which is down from last week but well above the ten week average of 27 million. Soybean exports also came in at 56 million bushel which is significantly above the ten week average of 18 million.
Weekly ethanol production dropped for the second straight week to 1.015 million barrels per day compared to 1.036 last week and 1.051 the week before. It is still above this time last year. With most ethanol plants taking their fall shutdowns in late September thru mid October these drops are not only expected but needed to help reduce stocks.
The USDA S&D report will be released a week from today. Look for the traders to position themselves between now and then for any surprises. Private surveys will be released in the next few days with the expectation that many are looking for larger corn and soybean yields.

Reminder – All loads need to be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 3, 2018

Good Morning,

Commodities are unchanged this morning with a lack of follow through buying after a couple days of higher trade in the corn and bean markets. There has been some technical buying and short covering after Monday’s news of Canada and the US coming to an agreement on NAFTA.
December corn is trying to hold above its 50 day moving average and is currently trading at $3.68.
Forecasts for the next 10 days are calling for extended periods of rain impacting harvest activities throughout the central US. An estimated 35-40% of the corn and bean crops will be directly impacted by this weather with soybeans being the most susceptible to loss.
President Trump is expected to visit Council Bluffs, Iowan next Tuesday to announce the lifting of the summer ban on higher ethanol blends of gasoline and to possibly announce tighter restrictions on the trading of ethanol blending credits.
Producers should be looking to add to their corn sales for this winter and next spring at current levels. Sales of $3.60-3.65 for January thru May are now obtainable. Producers should also be looking to put small sales on for next fall in the $3.70 range.

Reminder – All loads need to be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 1, 2018

October 1, 2018

Good Morning,

Friday’s bearish stocks report from the USDA put pressure on the markets to end the week and month. This will add more pressure to the markets longer term if yields for the 2018 crop continue to be good.
The markets are higher this morning on the heels of a surprise development that the US and Canada reached a last minute deal last night on a new NAFTA accord. This agreement should lead to a late November signing ceremony to seal the deal. With this news I would not be surprised to see additional fund buying to start the 4th quarter that could lead to a small rally.
Fridays report made it clear that if the market is going to rally it is going to be if we can get a robust export program in place.
Forecasts for the week remain cool and wet which should ease some of the harvest pressure in the south that has resulted in long lines and limited space. Producers in WI and MN should take note of these issues and make sure you have a plan for fall bushels.

Reminder – All loads being delivered to Didion must be scheduled. (Contract and spot bushels)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com