June 24, 2019

Good Morning,

We start the new week with the markets up through the overnight of trade. Corn is up 4 cents and soybeans are up 6 cents. This week is set to be an eventful one with the release of a few reports and there is a G20 summit meeting where President Trump is expected to speak with international leaders regarding trade. Although the trade disputes are not expected to be resolved, it is very important for our markets that we don’t take any more steps back. There will be a crop progress report released this afternoon at 3 p.m. that will give us more insight to where we are with soybean planting and give an update on the condition of U.S. crops. This Friday, the USDA will release a much anticipated stocks/acreage report at 11 a.m. This report is arguably the most impactful report for this year’s crop and traders will be taking positions before and after the publication. If you are sitting on any old crop corn, I would consider selling some amount this week. With the weather returning back to more normal temperatures and the occurrence of some impactful events I wouldn’t want you to miss out on any opportunities to lock in your crop at profitable levels!

Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 21, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets traded relatively steady through the overnight with corn unchanged and soybeans down 5 cents. Weather continues to be the driver of the markets here in the short run with some heavy rains expected to move through much of the Corn Belt this weekend. The weekly crop condition and planting progress report will be released this Monday and there will be a stocks and acreage report released next Friday, the 28th. Traders will be relying heavily on the upcoming reports with still so much unknown any little bit of news will give traders more insight to what yield and acreage loss will amount to. The market definitely seems to be in a wait in see mode regarding the weather and the effects it will have on the crops. Until next Fridays stock report that coincides with month and quarter end is released, I think the market won’t push prices to far one way or the other. I would recommend calling today to discuss your marketing needs and see what the best options are moving forward.

Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 20, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are down just slightly through the overnight with corn and soybeans down a cent. Rains are expected to move into our area this weekend, but after that forecasts show we will see a return to more normal temperatures. Overall, it looks like there will be a good window to finish planting soybeans for most farmers across the nation. The market seems like it is in a wait and see mode regarding the upcoming weather and how the USDA will estimate yield and acreage loss. Until we get a good handle on what that looks like, I think we will see a consolidation in trade and the market will take a breather from the most recent run in prices we had.
Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 18, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are lower here overnight and it’s hard to point out one specific reason. It seems to be influenced by a couple different things and just an exhaustion of the recent run. Prior to the small downside overnight, markets were deeply overbought, which makes it more susceptible to a downward move. After all, prices can’t always continue to go up. The planting progress report had 92% of corn planting completed and that told enough traders that in the last week that there was a strong push to get planters in the field. By no means do we think the new crop balance sheet is solved. I think time will tell with this issue and traders will rely heavy on the weather and upcoming reports to dictate where yield and acreage loss will end up. I would recommend getting some new crop on the books and locking in a profit on some production, and don’t forget to market the balance of old crop bushels.
Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 17, 2019

Good Morning,
Markets continue to climb as the fear of acreage loss and yield decline continues to grip our market. The weather outlook for the next 7 days doesn’t seem to change much from what we are seeing now. Rains will continue to move through the Corn Belt this week with multiple systems on the way and temperatures will remain on the moderate to cooler side. Further forecasts predict that rains will move north in the next 10-15 days and will allow for things to dry up. A planting progress report and crop condition report will be issued this afternoon and the markets will be looking heavily into that. Corn planting is said to be finally wrapping up at this time if not completely done. Crop conditions will be the next debate markets will try to quantify and bring to life. Ultimately, fear is running ramped in the mind of traders and the markets are up sharply in response. I believe this week will bring high volatility in prices with such on edge trading. With so much still unknown, I don’t think we will see this calm down until we get a real bearing on what yield and production loss will look like.
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 13, 2019

Good Morning,

Throughout the last 24 hours rains have moved through the area and are sweeping across the Great Lakes and hitting parts of the Eastern Corn Belt. With more rain on the forecast and cooler temperatures it seems that late corn and bean planting will continue to be stalled in the region. As a result of the weather, prices have been trading higher. Corn traded just under 7 cents higher through the overnight. This morning the nearby spot price surpassed the highs we saw towards the end of May. The big question that remains is how much longer will the price continue to rise? It will be interesting to see where the planting progress ends on a national basis. This past week has allowed for many farmers to get in fields, but now that more rain is moving through it will be interesting to see just how much got done in OH, IL, MI, and IN. Until the next yield and acreage estimates are released I think the high volatility in prices will remain.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 11, 2019

June 11, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets were weaker overnight and look to trade lower this morning following last nights planting progress report. Weather last Thursday thru Sunday allowed more field work in IL, IN and OH than had been anticipated. Last nights planting progress had the nation at 83% complete compared to 67% last week. WI jumped to 78% from 58% last week. IL, IN and OH increased by 28, 36 and 17% respectively. Planting will soon be a non-issue as time will have run out, most likely at the end of this week and the forecast looks like there will be plenty accomplished this week.
USDA will issue their new US and World supply and demand numbers at 11am today.(estimates below) Most do not look for many changes in soybeans and wheat. The USDA could lower exports in all three commodities. The big unknown is what will the USDA do to US corn acres and yield. They should be lower due to the wet spring. This should lower US and World carryout, but will it be enough to push prices higher is unknown with many traders already anticipating less acres and lower yield.
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said as his agency will have more details on how it plans to dole out the $16 billion to farmers and others in the coming weeks and urges growers to “plant what works best on your farm.”

USDA 2019-20 Corn and Soybean Production (billion bu/bpa)
June Est. Average Est. May Est.
Corn Production 13.680 14.251 15.030
Corn Yield 166.0 172.4 176.0
Soybean Production 4.15 4.123 4.15
Soybean Yield 49.5 49.0 49.5

USDA 2018-19 U.S. ending stocks (billion bu)
June Est. Average Est. May Est.
Wheat 1.102 1.121 1.127
Corn 2.195 2.123 2.095
Soybeans 1.070 1.004 .995

USDA 2019-20 U.S. ending stocks (billion bu)
June Est. Average Est. May Est.
Wheat 1.072 1.118 1.141
Corn 1.675 1.917 2.485
Soybeans 1.045 .983 .970

The run up in the markets over the last couple weeks resulted in a lot of corn and beans getting priced at profitable levels. As usual, the best prices were locked in by producers that had “Firm Offers” in place. Now that spring field work is coming to an end, producers should be looking to put their next level of offers in with their buyers. If possible, I would advise having your offers in prior to today’s report to capture any short electronic rally that this report may offer.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 7, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are softer this morning to end the week. July corn was unable to maintain the upward momentum overnight following yesterday’s turnaround. Equity markets are relatively quiet despite the Trump Administrations threat of additional tariffs against Mexico looming on Monday.
The market has seen some selling pressure as weather forecasts become clearer with farmers across the Corn Belt looking like they will enjoy favorable weather for the 11th hour planting through the middle of next week.
Yesterday’s export sales report was disappointing to say the least. Corn came in at a negative 300,000 bu., due to cancellations. Argentina and Brazils record production and supply has and will continue to have an impact on US demand.
Next weeks planting progress (Monday afternoon) and USDA S&D report (Tuesday morning) are highly anticipated by traders looking for future direction.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 6, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are lower again this morning with favorable planting and growing weather in the forecast. The U.S. Midwest weather forecast changed to significantly less rains over the next 5 days and the 6 to 10 day period is also a bit drier. The U.S. Delta and the Southeast has a period of wet weather through early next week.
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that progress was being made in talks with Mexico to stem the flow of migrants to the United States and would continue on Thursday, but unless an agreement can be reached a 5% tariff on Mexican goods would begin on Monday.
With the anticipation of lower production, Smithfield foods purchase of 500,000 to 1 MMT of South American corn for 19/20 makes sense. There is no way the ECB is going to produce enough corn to match 18/19 domestic consumption for ethanol, feeding, and exports. Other animal feeders on the East Coast and in the SE may looking at doing the same thing, which will continue to reduce the demand for US corn!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 4, 2019

Good Morning,

Weekly crop progress reports were unsurprisingly friendly as only two-thirds of the corn crop and less than 40% of the bean have been able to be seeded this spring. While the corn is obviously record slow, the beans aren’t far behind with their second slowest rate ever. If we use the March planting intentions data, Monday’s report means that farmers still have over 30M acres of corn and over 50M acres of beans that still haven’t been planted.
Major weather models are in good agreement in calling for a tropical system to move in over the Southeast that will shift the wet weather south and out of the Northern-half of the Corn Belt. This will allow farmers from Nebraska in the west clear across the I-80 corridor all the way to Ohio and points north to make an 11th hour push to get as many acres seeded before the next round of showers and storms move through.

It’s being reported (unconfirmed) that USDA Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue changed his statement today regarding Prevent Plant acres counting toward Market Facilitation Payments. Initially he said that they would not when the program was announced. Last week he said that they may, but that farmers would not be told probably until July. Today he reportedly stated that he hopes to have “a definitive answer” by the end of this week. That could dramatically impact decisions on Prevent Plant.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com